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Richard Levett
ModeratorStat of the day
Olly Murphy is £50.12 to a £1 level stake in handicap hurdles this season, 37 wins from 169 runs.
He has a number of contenders on the card at Market Rasen today; best chance likely to be in the 1310, Henrysbrotherjack who got off the mark at the third attempt and likely able to find a bit more!
ModeratorNAP of the day
1500 Musselburgh – Hamsiyann 7/4 – 9th
Well backed when landed handicap at Cheltenham last tim eout; further today which should suit; high-class stayer (on the flat) unexposed so should be on the premises!
ModeratorNAP of the day
1650 Newcastle – Frankies Dream 6/4 – 1st
Well treated at the weights when landed a handicap by 2 lengths over 5f at Lingfield last time out; up in trip today; the one to beat if settling not an issue!
ModeratorStat of the day
Gavin Sheehan is £111.54 to a level £1 stake in bumpers this season; 11 wins from 46 runs (23.9% SR)
Rides in the 1612 at Sandown this afternoon aboard Silver Hill.
ModeratorStat of the day
Sean Bowen is £162.78 to a level £1 stake in hurdles at Lingfield this season. 12 wins from 40 rides (30% SR)
He heads to Lingfield today with a full schedule and is riding in all 7 races!
Of the 7 rides, 4 are over hurdles, with two really good looking chances, Pierrot Jaguen and Drayton Flyer, Eaton Anne definately can’t be rules out after hosing uplast time and steps up in trip today.
ModeratorThursday’s EYECATCHER
1810 Aquaduct (USA) – Farm House
ModeratorNAP of the day
2030 Chelmsford – Cherry King 4/5
Mugged on Tuesday beaten a short head in Classified Race over 9f at Wolverhampton; the one to beat if this race hasn’t come too soon!
ModeratorNAP of the day
1800 Kempton – Quai De Bethune 1/2
Third beaten 8 1/2 lengths in good quality novice at Sandown on debut; top jockey up top; returns from a break can go in today!
ModeratorNAP of the day
1312 Chepstow – Night Jet 6/4
Close to form and well backed when beaten in a handicap hurdle over 2m at Uttoxeter last time out; not proven at this trip but the pick on balance of form!
ModeratorTurf Paradise (USA)
2025 – Spitten Kitten
2156 – Terry’s Service
ModeratorThe back-to-lay strategy is a popular approach in sports trading, particularly on betting exchanges like Betfair. It involves placing a back bet (betting on an outcome to happen) at higher odds and then placing a lay bet (betting on the same outcome not to happen) at lower odds, with the goal of locking in a profit regardless of the final result.
Here’s a breakdown of how it works:
How Back-to-Lay Works
Back Bet:
You identify a selection (e.g., a horse or team) where you expect the odds to drop.
Place a back bet at the current odds.Odds Drop:
If the selection performs well or market sentiment changes, the odds on that selection will decrease.Lay Bet:
Once the odds drop, place a lay bet at the lower odds.Profit Calculation
By laying at lower odds than your original back bet, you can secure a profit.
Example:You back a horse at 10.0 odds with £10:
Potential profit (if the horse wins): £90 (£100 return – £10 stake).Odds drop to 6.0 after strong market support or pre-race buzz.
You lay the same horse at 6.0 for £16.67:
Liability: £83.33 (6.0 odds x £16.67 lay stake – £16.67 lay stake).
If the horse wins:
Back bet wins: £90 profit.
Lay bet loses: £83.33 liability.
Net profit: £6.67.
If the horse loses:
Back bet loses: £10 stake.
Lay bet wins: £16.67 lay stake.
Net profit: £6.67.This ensures a guaranteed profit of £6.67 no matter the outcome.
Key Factors for SuccessMarket Knowledge: Identify selections whose odds are likely to drop (e.g., horses with strong form, a team expected to start strongly, or pre-match rumours).
Timing: The earlier you spot an opportunity, the more room for odds to decrease.
Liquidity: Ensure the market has sufficient liquidity for both back and lay bets.
Patience and Discipline: Wait for favourable odds and avoid chasing losses.Advantages
Low-risk: You can lock in profit before the event finishes.
Versatility: Can be applied to various sports and markets, including football, horse racing, and cricket.Risks to Consider
Odds Might Not Drop: If odds drift higher instead of falling, you may face a loss or require a larger lay stake to break even.
Market Volatility: Fast-moving markets can make it harder to secure your desired odds.
Mistakes in Calculations: Ensure accurate calculations to avoid losses due to mismatched stakes.This strategy is particularly appealing for those seeking steady, low-risk profits rather than relying purely on outcomes.
Moderator1300 Naas – El Champo 13/2
1330 Naas – Young Churchill 9/2
1340 Sedgefield – The Cypriot 7/4
1430 Naas – Bioluminescence 11/4
1450 Fontwell – Boys Of Wexford 4/1
ModeratorSunday’s EYECATCHER
1420 Fontwell – Shuil Ceoil 9/4
ModeratorNAP of the day
1410 Sedgefield – Surrey Belle Evs (1/1)
Game second beaten 3/4 length in a novice hurdle at Catterick last time out; should make all in this contest; the pick on form!
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