Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
Richard Levett
ModeratorStat of the day
Sean Bowen is £162.78 to a level £1 stake in hurdles at Lingfield this season. 12 wins from 40 rides (30% SR)
He heads to Lingfield today with a full schedule and is riding in all 7 races!
Of the 7 rides, 4 are over hurdles, with two really good looking chances, Pierrot Jaguen and Drayton Flyer, Eaton Anne definately can’t be rules out after hosing uplast time and steps up in trip today.
ModeratorThursday’s EYECATCHER
1810 Aquaduct (USA) – Farm House
ModeratorNAP of the day
2030 Chelmsford – Cherry King 4/5
Mugged on Tuesday beaten a short head in Classified Race over 9f at Wolverhampton; the one to beat if this race hasn’t come too soon!
ModeratorNAP of the day
1800 Kempton – Quai De Bethune 1/2
Third beaten 8 1/2 lengths in good quality novice at Sandown on debut; top jockey up top; returns from a break can go in today!
ModeratorNAP of the day
1312 Chepstow – Night Jet 6/4
Close to form and well backed when beaten in a handicap hurdle over 2m at Uttoxeter last time out; not proven at this trip but the pick on balance of form!
ModeratorTurf Paradise (USA)
2025 – Spitten Kitten
2156 – Terry’s Service
ModeratorThe back-to-lay strategy is a popular approach in sports trading, particularly on betting exchanges like Betfair. It involves placing a back bet (betting on an outcome to happen) at higher odds and then placing a lay bet (betting on the same outcome not to happen) at lower odds, with the goal of locking in a profit regardless of the final result.
Here’s a breakdown of how it works:
How Back-to-Lay Works
Back Bet:
You identify a selection (e.g., a horse or team) where you expect the odds to drop.
Place a back bet at the current odds.Odds Drop:
If the selection performs well or market sentiment changes, the odds on that selection will decrease.Lay Bet:
Once the odds drop, place a lay bet at the lower odds.Profit Calculation
By laying at lower odds than your original back bet, you can secure a profit.
Example:You back a horse at 10.0 odds with £10:
Potential profit (if the horse wins): £90 (£100 return – £10 stake).Odds drop to 6.0 after strong market support or pre-race buzz.
You lay the same horse at 6.0 for £16.67:
Liability: £83.33 (6.0 odds x £16.67 lay stake – £16.67 lay stake).
If the horse wins:
Back bet wins: £90 profit.
Lay bet loses: £83.33 liability.
Net profit: £6.67.
If the horse loses:
Back bet loses: £10 stake.
Lay bet wins: £16.67 lay stake.
Net profit: £6.67.This ensures a guaranteed profit of £6.67 no matter the outcome.
Key Factors for SuccessMarket Knowledge: Identify selections whose odds are likely to drop (e.g., horses with strong form, a team expected to start strongly, or pre-match rumours).
Timing: The earlier you spot an opportunity, the more room for odds to decrease.
Liquidity: Ensure the market has sufficient liquidity for both back and lay bets.
Patience and Discipline: Wait for favourable odds and avoid chasing losses.Advantages
Low-risk: You can lock in profit before the event finishes.
Versatility: Can be applied to various sports and markets, including football, horse racing, and cricket.Risks to Consider
Odds Might Not Drop: If odds drift higher instead of falling, you may face a loss or require a larger lay stake to break even.
Market Volatility: Fast-moving markets can make it harder to secure your desired odds.
Mistakes in Calculations: Ensure accurate calculations to avoid losses due to mismatched stakes.This strategy is particularly appealing for those seeking steady, low-risk profits rather than relying purely on outcomes.
Moderator1300 Naas – El Champo 13/2
1330 Naas – Young Churchill 9/2
1340 Sedgefield – The Cypriot 7/4
1430 Naas – Bioluminescence 11/4
1450 Fontwell – Boys Of Wexford 4/1
ModeratorSunday’s EYECATCHER
1420 Fontwell – Shuil Ceoil 9/4
ModeratorNAP of the day
1410 Sedgefield – Surrey Belle Evs (1/1)
Game second beaten 3/4 length in a novice hurdle at Catterick last time out; should make all in this contest; the pick on form!
ModeratorModeratorNAP of the day
1540 Clonmel – Doyen For A Drink 4/1
Travelled well when fell in a handicap hurdle at Limerick last time out; would have won comfortably that day; well treated if turned out quickly; usually held but can make amends here.
ModeratorNAP of the day
1318 Punchestown – Ragmans Corner 11/4
Ran to form beaten a length at Fairyhouse last time out conceding first run; back down in trip today; big danger!
ModeratorNAP of the day
1242 Ffos Las – Jasmine Bliss 4/7
Well backed 2nd beaten a length in a maiden hurdle at Lingfield last tim eout; that form franked at Loisted level; steadily progressive dual bumper winner; looks the one to beat!
ModeratorNAP of the day
1900 Chelmsford – The Outlaw 10/11
Well backed when beaten over 7f at Southwell last time out; first time on Polytrack; steps up in trip; the one to beat if turned out quickly!
-
AuthorPosts