Richard Levett

[Richard Levett]

Morning all! Firstly, congratulations to Matt and his wife on the birth of their daughter yesterday. Secondly, Matt will be off until Monday and has asked me to step into his shoes (metaphorically) until then. So without further ado, here are today’s ratings……..

Chepstow

1345 Subatomic / Miss Laila
1415 Russian Finale / Cinders
1450 The Big short / Bruny Island
1525 Auric Goldfinger / London Grammer
1600 Golden Wedding / Jabbaar
1635 Ali zoom / Satchville Flyer
1710 Desert cross / Master Dancer

Doncaster

1355 Glitter Girl / Fire Palace
1430 Blending / Kilmah
1505 Abingdon / Carnachy
1540 Spiritual Lady / Global Applause
1615 Poets Word / Central Square
1650 The Anvil / Hydroxide
1800 Fendale / Highland Acclaim

Epsom

1405 Maldonado / Masonic
1440 Ripoli / Irish Optimism
1515 Pacolita / Cricklewood Green
1550 Alberta / Carthage
1625 So Celebre / Shufoog
1700 Honcho / Invade

Chelmsford

1740 Boychick / Power Up
1810 Sun Angel / Chica De La Noche
1840 Mystique Heights / Hiorne Tower
1910 Honorina / Kylla Instinct
1940 Divisionist / Thundering Blue
2010 Verne Castle / Innocently
2040 Minminwin / Poplar

Each Way bets

Chepstow 1525 Blast of Faith
Chepstow 1635 He’s My Cracker
Chepstow 1710 File of Facts
Doncaster 1355 Island Vision
Doncaster 1800 Little Palavar
Epsom 1700 Pharaoh Jake

[Richard Levett]

Today’s matched ratings.

CARLILSE

1.50 –

2.20 –

2.50 Euro Nightmare

3.25 Cuttin Edge / Time to Study

4.00 –

4.35 –

5.05 Wor Lass

DONCASTER

2.00 Akhlaaq

2.30 Andok

3.00 Pearl Secret

3.35 –

4.10 Roll On Rory

4.45 Mount Logan

5.15 –

UTTOXETER

2.10 Policy Breach / Skylander

2.40 Jimmy the Jetplane / In the Rough

3.15 Horseguardsparade / Kiwayu

3.50 Oh Land Bloom / Dovils Date

4.20 Coopers Friend / Strongly Suggested

4.55 Sarpech

KEMPTON

5.25 –

5.55 Lord Glenaghcastle

6.25 Helfire

6.55 Sir Compton

7.25 Eyeshine / Iconic Sky

7.55 –

8.25 All the Rage

8.55 Rubensian / Nucky Thompson

[Richard Levett]

Start of St Leger today, should throw up some exciting racing, so here are my ratings for Doncaster, let’s see how many match Mattts!

1400 Akhlaaq / Dream of Dreams
1430 Andok / Appointed
1500 Muthmir / Pearl Secret
1535 Pike corner Cross / Mon Beau Visage / Sophisticated Heir
1610 War Glory / Roll on Rory
1645 Mount Logan/ Oasis Fantasy
1715 Pea Shooter / Love on the Rocks

[Richard Levett]

Today’s matched ratings

REDCAR

1.50 Kings Gift

2.20 Justanotherbottle

2.50 You’re Cool

3.20 Vallarta

3.50 Beardwood

4.20 Manshood / Hyland Heather

4.50 Monjeni

5.20 Mime dance

LEICESTER

2.00 Coronet / Agathonia

2.30 Southern Belle

3.00 Chevalier Du Lac

3.30 English Summer

4.00 Musdam

4.35 Elucidation

WORCESTER

2.10 Rejaah

2.40 Kinari / Promanco

3.10 Alyasan

3.40 Robert Star / Trafalgar Rock

4.10 Angel Face / Solstalla

4.40 Fine Resolve

PERTH

5.10 Kashmiri Sunset

5.40 –

6.10 Mirsaale / Miro

6.40 Mountain King

7.10 –

7.40 Baysbrown

[Richard Levett]

Three winners and three placed at Galway yesterday, so here we go for today…..

1625 Mr Antolini /Cable
1655 Dream baby / Baltimore Buzz
1725 Airlie Beach / Water Sprite
1755 Timmone / Freedom Status
1825 Hurricane Ben / Tocororo
1855 Shake it Up / Augest Benefit
1925 Borbeleta / The birdie Crow

[Richard Levett]

Hi Jacqueline,

Wow, that’s a long list of restricted account’s, I’ve only ever lost one account (Stan James) as a rule I tend to try and lose 1% of my weekly winners in order to safeguard my accounts, and thus far it’s working.

Hopefully if your predominately using the exchanges and especially Betfair, you are one the lower tier of commission!

[Richard Levett]

Perth 1440 Son of My Heart, odds shortening now 11/4, am I right in assuming if he odds stay at this or shorten further it’s a no bet on the JAYMAC System?

[Richard Levett]

Good advice Paul, I posted on the blog a couple of weeks ago about protecting your bookie accounts, if you missed it, here it is again.

The first time it happens you feel proud. You think of it as a badge of honor. The second time it happens you laugh about. The third time and all the times after that, it’s just annoying.

Of course I am talking about betting account restrictions. Have you ever had a betting account completely shut down or had the amount you can stake on a selection severely limited?

This is no big deal when it’s just one account but when bookmaker after bookmaker start limiting your accounts it becomes a hassle and unfortunately this is the reality you have to deal with if you are a profitable gambler.

So what’s the solution? Use betting exchanges instead?

Well not quite, exchanges are a valuable tool in a gamblers arsenal but if you’ve still got some bookmaker accounts open there are somethings you can do to help prolong the life of your accounts.

But first lets look at why it is important to have as many open bookmaker accounts as possible.

Price is King

Having fewer bookmaker accounts makes it a lot harder to get the best available price on a selection.

Having multiple limited accounts could mean only having the option to take odds of 6.00 on a selection that is priced at 7.00 elsewhere. This may not sound like a lot but that sort of difference in odds can be the difference between being a profitable gambler and a losing gambler.

I’ll give you an example, there are two punters, one named Open Oliver, one named Restricted Ralph, each like to bet £100 a bet. Open Oliver has access to many bookmaker accounts and is not limited. He places 30 bets over the course of a month at odds of 7.00.

Restricted Ralph on the other hand is restricted from many bookmakers and only has a few accounts still open. Ralph places the same 30 bets over the course of the week as Oliver but Ralph only manages to get his bets on at odds of 6.00.

Out of the 30 bets 25 of them lose and 5 of them win.

Oliver loses £2500 on the losing bets but makes a profit of £3000 on his 5 winning bets giving him a total profit of £500.

Ralph on the other hand loses £2500 and only makes a profit of £2500 on the winning bets meaning he didn’t make any money at all.

Now in the example above I kept the odds the same on every bet for the sake of simplicity but the same thing applies no matter what odds you are betting at.

If you can’t take the best price you are missing out on value and that value could be the difference between winning and losing.

This is the main reason why it is vital to keep as many bookmaker accounts open as possible. Now lets discuss how you can go about doing just that.

Chain Reaction

When one bookmaker limits your account it often sets off a chain reaction of bookmaker after bookmaker closing your accounts. This is due to the fact that you will be putting the same amount of bets you normally place through a smaller number of accounts.

This increased volume going through your accounts often attracts the unwanted attention of the traders who will limit your account once they realize they won’t be making any money off of you.

In order to slow this process down I advise that you spread your bets around as much as you possibly can while still getting the best odds.

Betting less at each bookie will make you look more like a regular punter placing the odd bet here and there. Bookmakers don’t want to close accounts of regular punters as they are their bread and butter and where they make their money.

So long as you continue to look like a regular gambler no one will pay much attention to you and you will be able to carry on making money under the radar.

If you have the option of putting a bet through a larger bookmaker or a smaller lesser known bookmaker at the same odds always go with the smaller bookmaker.

Having your account shut down at a small bookmaker isn’t as a big a deal as having one of you big accounts shut down. It is important that you give priority to keeping your accounts with larger bookmakers open as long as possible as this is where you will make most of your money.

Bets that Bookies Love

Bookmakers love people who bet on short priced favorites. This is what your average Joe Blow punter bets on and this is where bookmakers make most of their money.

Now Joe Blow thinks the way to make money from betting is to bet on the winner. But Joe Blow always ends up losing money to the bookies because he bets on the favorite with out taking into account the odds he is getting.

If you bet on favorites who have a 50% chance of winning but only get odds of 1.91 you will lose money in the long run.

Bookmakers always price favorites with a large house edge because they know the average bettor will bet money on it regardless of the price if they think they are going to win.

The only one who wins in this scenario is the bookmakers and they’re laughing all the way to the bank.

Now I know what your thinking, this is all well and good but whats this got to do with winning money and keeping accounts open?

You can use these types of bets to trick the bookmaker into thinking your just a regular punter and not a successful gambler.

In order to do this you will need to find a close match between a bookmakers odds on a favorite and it’s lay odds at a betting exchange.

You will then back the favorite at the bookmaker with your regular stake size and lay the bet off on the exchange. (you can use an matched betting calculator to calculate your lay stake)

This will lock in a small loss but it is a small price to pay to prolong the life of your accounts.

I would recommend picking a football team who is usually going to be an odds on favorite and back then with your larger bookmaker accounts week after week for the best results.

Don’t Bet Big

Another main reason why profitable accounts get noticed and shut down is because you are betting to big with the bookmaker.

When you start betting big (£100 and over) the bookies are likely to take an interest in your account and start monitoring it. Now if you are a losing gambler who bets big this would not be a problem. The bookmaker would quickly suss you were a mug and be happy to take large bets from you knowing you will lose in the long run.

But if you happen to be a profitable gambler, having your account monitored is bad news. So how can you avoid this from happening to you?

Bookmakers are fairly comfortable with taking bets up to £50 and won’t bat an eyelid at them. These profitable bets can go mostly undetected and help you stay under the radar.

This give you a couple of options.

1. If you are happy with only betting £50 a pop then keep your bets to £50 or lower.

If £50 is not enough for you then you should consider option 2.

2. Spread your bets around bookmakers. Say you wanted to stake £100 on Horse A, then you could stake £50 at bookie 1 and another £50 at bookie number 2.

How Long Can I Expect an Account to Stay Open?

Following these steps is no magic bullet and if you are a profitable gambler your account will get shut down at some point. It is just a matter of when. Assuming you are a reasonably profitable gambler and you follow my steps above you can expect your accounts to have an average lifespan of several years.

Some bookies will close your accounts much quicker than that (less than a month) where as others will take a lot longer to shut you down.

[Richard Levett]

So if I understand the JAYMAC System correctly there are only three eligible races today.

Perth – Going – Good

1440 Son of My Heart (3/1)
1510 Trespassed (8/13) / Stone Quercus (5/2)

WINDSOR – Going – Good

1720 May Rose (7/4)

All other races are either Class 5 or 6 and prices on the rated horses are higher than 3/1 (4.0)

Have I got this right?

[Richard Levett]

If any of you are interested in the Galway card…………

1635 Exemplar / Tang Dynasty
1705 Lady Ranger / Yamato/ Snoozing Indian
1735 Teos Music / Joy for Mary
1805 Fair Game / Intense Stylist
1835 Almela / Glamorous Approach
1905 Empressario / Ondamoura
1935 Massayan / Treasure Chest

[Richard Levett]

I’m back!! Somewhat jet-lagged, but glad to be back. So on to today’s matched ratings on what Matt has correctly stated as a dire day, but there might just be a few cheeky winners in there.

BRIGHTON

2.00 –

2.30 Colibri / Endeavour

3.00 Sarango

3.30 Masterson

4.00 Ocean Ready

4.30 The Greedy Boy

5.00 –

PERTH

2.10 Lilywhite Gesture / What a Game

2.40 Son of my Heart

3.10 Tresspassed / Stone Quercus

3.40 Kumbeshwar

4.10 Donna’s Pride

4.40 Old Storm

WINDSOR

2.20 Primadonia/ Dontforgettcall

2.50 Frenchman

3.20 Mister Blue Sky / Jumping Jack

3.50 Plenary

4.20 Percy’s Romance / All My Love

4.50 –

5.20 May Rose / Archie Stevens

[Richard Levett]

Afternoon guys and girls ( although its nearly 2am here)

To update you kind people who have been wondering if I’d vanished. Nearly two weeks ago I flew with my wife and kids to Nrw Zealand as my father was taken seriously ill ( they emigrated some 8 years ago) unfortunately he passed away whilst we were betwen Kuala Lumper and Auckland.

I’ve had a reflective few weeks but will be back on Sunday for normal service resumed!

Hope you’ve all bashed the bookies hard and look forward to catching up.

[Richard Levett]

Today’s matched ratings;

YORK

1.45 Scarlet Dragon / Erik the Red

2.15 Diploma / Custom Cut

2.50 Shraash / Master Blueyes

3.25 Blue Point / Mubtasim

4.00 She’s No Lady /Antquarium

4.35 Sutter County / Afandam

5.05 Laughton / Midnight Malibu

SANDOWN

1.55 Serengeti Sky

2.30 Persuasive

3.05 South Seas

3.40 –

4.15 Shamshon/ Stake Acclaim

4.50 –

5.25 Laurence

NEWTON ABBOT

2.00 Nikki Steel / Mr Mountain

2.35 Gowanauthat

3.10 Notarfbad

3.45 –

4.20 –

4.55 Thunder Pass

5.30 I’llhavealook / Mount Vesuvius

CHESTER

2.05 Ray’s The Money

2.40 Partittia

3.15 Muntahaa

3.50 Right Touch

4.25 –

5.00 Gabrials Star

5.35 Geno

PERTH

2.55 Mirsaale

3.30 Baysbrown

4.05 –

4.40 Desoto County / Moabit

5.15 –

5.50 Present Lodger / Presented

6.25 Westimare

BATH

5.10 Withhold

5.40 Dynamo

6.05 Nanny Makfi

6.35 –

7.05 Indrapura

7.35 –

8.05 Pivotal Flame

CHELMSFORD

5.45 Unsuspected Girl

6.15 Queen in Waiting

6.50 Soldiers Girl

7.20 Tenzing Norgay

7.50 Mubajal / Heartstone

8.20 In Ken’s Memory

8.50 –

[Richard Levett]

Saturday 20 August – Betfred Ebor Day

The feature race of the Saturday is the Betfred Ebor, the oldest, and probably most famous race at York and the richest flat handicap in Europe. The excitement that this famous handicap generates has been constant since the 1840s; Mudawin a winner at over 100-1, Sergeant Cecil, a victor who became horse of the year, Purple Moon who landed a nationwide gamble and then headed down under and very nearly became the first British trained winner of the Melbourne Cup, a flying dismount from Frankie – and that’s just in its recent history. The buzz about the racecourse on Ebor day is infectious as groups of friends enjoy, relax and hopefully unravel the puzzle to find the winner of the Betfred Ebor.

[Richard Levett]

Thought I’d share this with you, just received from Paul Jacobs at Racing Post,

“Saturday is a day when I have to sort out the wheat from the chaff and as such I could fill two pages with fairly interesting information. At York I have been told that Blue Point is fancied for the Gimcrack at 3.25 and in the Ebor expect better runs from both Fun Mac (never put into his last race at Goodwood) and Quick Jack.

At Sandown, I can pass on a good word for Outback Ruler in the 4.30, considered better handicapped now by the yard.

But as promised I will only be having one big bet Today and it comes at Perth. There is plenty of rain in the air at the Highlands track and the 5.50 looks set to become a real test of stamina. Richard Johnson could well get a good tune out of Dr Moloney but he is a devlishly difficult horse to catch right and he makes the market for us with PRESENTED.

He loves to get his toe into the ground and I make the pair 9/4 jt favs. The former is generally 9/4 but the selection a massive 7/2 and with Lisa Harrison’s yard in great form he has to be the bet and many of you who bet e/w from 3/1 upwards may want to play that way” PAUL

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