Richard Levett

[Richard Levett]

Might be something in this Chris. Update to the 1350 as of course odds shorten and drift and of course this affects the probability ratio.

Perfect Symphony now 24% (was 22% )

This may seem obvious but if the oods shorten the probability is greater and conversely if they drift, probability wains.

This will apply to all other races too, sorry if I’m stating the bleeding obvious or teaching granny to suck eggs!

[Richard Levett]

Here’s something for you just to mix it up a bit and hopefully not send you into a spin.

Below is the Hamilton card for today showing the horse with the highest percentage chance of winning, taking into account field size, actual odds, going and mathematics.

Let’s see if mathematical probability can play a part, just for fun, but you never know ?

Hamilton

1350 Perfect Symphony 22%

1420 Shesnotforturning 22% / Wahaab 22%

1450 Shahaama 19%

1520 In my Place 23%

1550 Danzeno 37%

1620 Taking Liberties 13%

1655 Little Pippin 15%

1725 Kelvin Hall 19%

[Richard Levett]

No Irish card today, meeting at Roscommon abandoned.

[Richard Levett]

Today’s matched ratings, reminder, going, heavy at Hamilton, no further rain forecast, tread carefully.

HAMILTON

1.50 Party Tiger

2.20 Shesnotforturning

2.50 Jacob’s Pillow / Shahaama

3.20 Gilmer

3.50 Danezeno

4.20 –

4.55 Little Pippin

5.25 Qibtee

NEWTON ABBOT

2.00 Ivor’s Queen / Solstalla

2.30 Ballybolley / Marracudja

3.00 Rainy City / Templecross

3.30 Next Sensation

4.00 –

4.30 Taste the Wine

BATH

2.10 Fair Comment

2.40 –

3.10 Fast and Hot / Daily News

3.40 Spring Jig

4.10 Mazzel / Katrine

4.40 Precious Plum

5.10 –

5.40 –

[Richard Levett]

Chris and Rob, you two have me in stitches. As you point out, tricky times ahead with the transition back to jumps, also, Roscommon meeting is abandoned today, Hamilton gets the go ahead but the going is HEAVY! Salisbury loses a card for Wednesday due to unstable ground, and there’s more rain forecast, happy days. On the plus side, somebodies gotta win!

[Richard Levett]

Thanks Trevor, I’m going to include the Irish cards daily if you’re interested ( tomorrow’s abandoned) ?

[Richard Levett]

As official Irish Correspondent ( thanks Chris Baker for that label ) do you guys want me to publish the Irish card daily? Although tomorrow’s meeting at Roscommon has been abandoned. Let me know, I’m happy to do so.

[Richard Levett]

Well that was none too shabby for a Sunday! 8/1 & 5/1 winners at Epsom, and a nice 12/1 winner at Curragh. Thanks guys and gals for your comments, glad I could help top up your betting banks today.

20 races today ( including Curragh)
12 winners (8, 1st rated)
9 placed (3, 1st rated)
60% overall SR
40 % SR 1st rated
45% SR placed

Musselburgh

7 races
4 winners (2, 1st rated)
2 placed ( 1 of each rating)
1 NR

Epsom

7 races
4 winners ( 2 of each rating)
4 placed ( 2 of each rating)

Curragh

6 races
4 winners (all 1st rated )
3 placed ( all 2nd rated)

[Richard Levett]

By popular demand and especially for you ROB!

Curragh

1450 The Happy Prince / Janes Memory / Flight Risk
1525 Capri / Exemplar
1555 Propriano / Paddy the Celeb
1630 Tyler Wonder / Tithonus
1705 Twighlight Payment / Jennifer Jewel
1735 Complicit / Japan H’ghar

[Richard Levett]

4 from 7 at Haydock and 5 from 7 placed yesterday.

[Richard Levett]

Typical Sunday fayre today, and quite a bit of rain overnight at Epsom, tread carefully if you’re going to play!

Musselburgh

1400 Hot Hannah / Not Now Nadal
1430 Scots Piper / Think So
1505 Vimy Ridge / One Boy
1535 Prying Pandora / Roll on Rory
1610 Free Running / Dark Intention
1645 Asian wing / Ghostly Arc
1715 Thornaby Princess / See Vermont

Epsom

1410 Mutahaady / Law Power
1540 Mediaeval / Star of Rory
1515 Rotherwick / Great Hall / Hit the Jackpot
1545 Prosecute / Lorelina
1620 Senza Una Donna / Guns of Leros
1655 Aldrin / Cape Banjo
1725 Black Bess / Fast Dancer

[Richard Levett]

As you know it’s a big big day at Newmarket this afternoon, and as I wrote in the blog the Cambridgeshire @ 1610 is a 35 runner charge to the post. The nature of these big fields means undoubtedly that Matt and I would not see eye-to-eye, so I’m posting my ratings for Newmarket so you can all make your own judgements!

NEWMARKET

1.50 Elas Ruby / The Lacemaker

2.20 Best of Days / Montatiare / Douglas Mc Arthur

2.55 Lady Aurelia / Queen Kindly

3.30 Blue Point / Mehmas

4.10 Banksea / Spark plug / Erik the Red

4.45 Blushing Rose / Tonahutu

5.20 Von Bulcher / Salateen

[Richard Levett]

Today’s matched ratings;

NEWMARKET

1.50 –

2.20 Best of Days / Montatiare

2.55 Lady Aurelia

3.30 Blue Point / Mehmas

4.10 –

4.45 –

5.20 Von Bulcher

MARKET RASEN

2.00 Cliffs of Dover

2.35 Cloonacool

3.10 Ballykan

3.45 Muckle Roe / Sonneofpresenting

4.20 For Goodness Sake

4.55 Handsome Dan

5.30 Bandsman

RIPON

2.05 Await the Storm

2.40 Fleeting Dream

3.15 Maldonado

3.50 Kimbrella / Rex Imperator

4.25 –

5.00 Alquffaal / Sennockian Star

5.35 Blue Jean Baby

HAYDOCK

2.10 –

2.45 –

3.20 Muhajjal

3.55 Takatul

4.30 East Street Revue / Humidor

5.05 Spring Fling

5.40 Corinthian

CHESTER

2.30 Undiscovered Angel

3.05 Tomily / Big Lachie

3.40 Miracle Of Medinah

4.15 Flower of Love

4.50 Musharrif

5.25 –

HAMILTON

3.35 Indie Rock / Foxy Boy

4.05 Meshardal

4.40 Dutch Destiny

5.15 Kuraka / Pepys

5.50 Rainbow Rebel

6.20 Tamayuz Magic / Azzir

6.50 Rock Canyon / Lady Wootton

[Richard Levett]

So my ‘Magnificent Seven ‘ as Rob called it yesterday, didn’t quite deliver.

From the 7 selections there were 2 winners (Journey @ 13/8 and Southfield Vic @11/10) and 4 horses finished 2nd, so close!

[Richard Levett]

Morning all! Just posted on the blog a few thoughts and stats for the big day at Newmarket today, take a read if you get a chance. ?

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