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Richard Levett
ModeratorToday’s matched ratings;
SEDGEFIELD
2.00 Major Ivan
2.30 Kiwayu
3.05 –
3.40 –
4.15 Silver Shuffle / Ange Des Malberaux
4.50 Gvs Ivportensa
SOUTHWELL
2.20 Unify / Larkhall
2.55 Super Scorpion
3.30 Doitforjoe
4.05 Miss Mobot / Lady Robyn
4.40 Master Dancer / Katie Gale
5.10 Definitely Grey
WOLVES
5.40 Redicean
6.10 –
6.40 Dream Ally
7.10 Coolcalmcollected
7.40 Sbraase
8.10 Best Laid Plan
8.40 Wings of Esteem / Youre a Goat
9.10 –
Richard Levett
ModeratorAyr abandoned – waterlogged track.
Richard Levett
ModeratorPoor from Ivor’s Queen, not sure that horse is worth its 123 rating!
Richard Levett
ModeratorFirst one home for the matched ratings (Party Tiger @ 6/1)
Richard Levett
ModeratorShahaama 1450 Hamilton, jockey trainer combo Graham Lee / Mick Channon, 45% SR
Jockey to follow for the day – Sam Twiston Davies rides Marracudja Newton Abbot 1430
Richard Levett
ModeratorIvor’s Queen Newton Abbot 1400, 52% win probability.
Richard Levett
ModeratorMight be something in this Chris. Update to the 1350 as of course odds shorten and drift and of course this affects the probability ratio.
Perfect Symphony now 24% (was 22% )
This may seem obvious but if the oods shorten the probability is greater and conversely if they drift, probability wains.
This will apply to all other races too, sorry if I’m stating the bleeding obvious or teaching granny to suck eggs!
Richard Levett
ModeratorHere’s something for you just to mix it up a bit and hopefully not send you into a spin.
Below is the Hamilton card for today showing the horse with the highest percentage chance of winning, taking into account field size, actual odds, going and mathematics.
Let’s see if mathematical probability can play a part, just for fun, but you never know ?
Hamilton
1350 Perfect Symphony 22%
1420 Shesnotforturning 22% / Wahaab 22%
1450 Shahaama 19%
1520 In my Place 23%
1550 Danzeno 37%
1620 Taking Liberties 13%
1655 Little Pippin 15%
1725 Kelvin Hall 19%
Richard Levett
ModeratorNo Irish card today, meeting at Roscommon abandoned.
Richard Levett
ModeratorToday’s matched ratings, reminder, going, heavy at Hamilton, no further rain forecast, tread carefully.
HAMILTON
1.50 Party Tiger
2.20 Shesnotforturning
2.50 Jacob’s Pillow / Shahaama
3.20 Gilmer
3.50 Danezeno
4.20 –
4.55 Little Pippin
5.25 Qibtee
NEWTON ABBOT
2.00 Ivor’s Queen / Solstalla
2.30 Ballybolley / Marracudja
3.00 Rainy City / Templecross
3.30 Next Sensation
4.00 –
4.30 Taste the Wine
BATH
2.10 Fair Comment
2.40 –
3.10 Fast and Hot / Daily News
3.40 Spring Jig
4.10 Mazzel / Katrine
4.40 Precious Plum
5.10 –
5.40 –
Richard Levett
ModeratorChris and Rob, you two have me in stitches. As you point out, tricky times ahead with the transition back to jumps, also, Roscommon meeting is abandoned today, Hamilton gets the go ahead but the going is HEAVY! Salisbury loses a card for Wednesday due to unstable ground, and there’s more rain forecast, happy days. On the plus side, somebodies gotta win!
Richard Levett
ModeratorThanks Trevor, I’m going to include the Irish cards daily if you’re interested ( tomorrow’s abandoned) ?
Richard Levett
ModeratorAs official Irish Correspondent ( thanks Chris Baker for that label ) do you guys want me to publish the Irish card daily? Although tomorrow’s meeting at Roscommon has been abandoned. Let me know, I’m happy to do so.
Richard Levett
ModeratorWell that was none too shabby for a Sunday! 8/1 & 5/1 winners at Epsom, and a nice 12/1 winner at Curragh. Thanks guys and gals for your comments, glad I could help top up your betting banks today.
20 races today ( including Curragh)
12 winners (8, 1st rated)
9 placed (3, 1st rated)
60% overall SR
40 % SR 1st rated
45% SR placedMusselburgh
7 races
4 winners (2, 1st rated)
2 placed ( 1 of each rating)
1 NREpsom
7 races
4 winners ( 2 of each rating)
4 placed ( 2 of each rating)Curragh
6 races
4 winners (all 1st rated )
3 placed ( all 2nd rated)Richard Levett
ModeratorBy popular demand and especially for you ROB!
Curragh
1450 The Happy Prince / Janes Memory / Flight Risk
1525 Capri / Exemplar
1555 Propriano / Paddy the Celeb
1630 Tyler Wonder / Tithonus
1705 Twighlight Payment / Jennifer Jewel
1735 Complicit / Japan H’ghar -
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