Richard Levett

[Richard Levett]

NAP of the day

1510 Ffos Las – Shesupincourt 6/5

14 length winner last time out; drops back in trip today; quicker ground shouldn’t pose an issue so can follow up!

[Richard Levett]

Hi Darren, I can see you joined this morning? What changed your mind so quickly if i may ask?

[Richard Levett]

Okay guys and gals! I’ve just run a sample dataset on the Value Bets published each day. I’ve taken the dataset for one full week from when we started publishing them along side the Daily Ratings so not a huge sample size to take in to account any variance, but a snapshot of early indications. So far it’s looking pretty good.

I’ve run the data assuming single bets on every selection daily to modest £10 stakes. So up to and including last night the early results are as follows:-

Strike Rate 33.33% (23 from 69)

Total profit – (To £10 Stakes) £218.50 (21.85 points)

Average profit per bet – £3.17

Average odds of winners – 4.84

Expected EV – 0.943

So to summarize, the strike rate is really good, average odds are showing a mix of medium to higher priced selections so if this keeps up we should remain profitable. The EV I’m very happy with at 0.943 which implies we are returning almost £1 for every £1 staked which is solid for long term growth, and with the longest losing run of 5, the bank remains robust.

Any thoughts or comments gratefully received!

[Richard Levett]

Hi Marty, and welcome to TPS, follow the link below and the staking plan is shown here:

Profitable Strategies

[Richard Levett]

NAP of ther day

1410 Wexford – Beckistine 13/2

Below par and comfortably held last time out; looked the likely winner when falling over hurdles prior; can make amends today and looks the one to beat!

[Richard Levett]

Today’s EYECATCHER

1335 Fakenham – Crown Of India 3/1

[Richard Levett]

NAP of the day

1600 Cheltenham – Jonbon 10/11

Beat Energumene in the Clarence House last time; 8 time Grade 1 winner; hard to oppose!

[Richard Levett]

Very good start for us at the Cheltenham Festival, 5 winners, a straight forecast and the value bet from Cheltenham came home too (13/2SP but 14/1 when advised!)

Same again tomorrow?

[Richard Levett]

We are off to a flyer in the opener at Cheltenham! Not only did we bag the winner (Kopek Des Bordes) but 2nd and 3rd rated too, in that order for a fantastic forecast, brilliant start!

[Richard Levett]

Today’s EYECATCHER

1720 Cheltenham – Kyntara 12/1

[Richard Levett]

NAP of the day

1618 Sedgefield – Cave Article 13/8

C&D winner; steadily progressive; form franked; should be in the mix today!

[Richard Levett]

First things first, We’re not a tipping service, and we don’t claim to be!

However, if you’re here to uncover high-value bets and use a data-driven edge to profit over the long term, you’re in exactly the right place.

What You Can Expect From Us

Daily Ratings: You’ll receive our top 3 rated horses in each race based purely on probability models – no bias, no opinions, just raw data.

Long-Term Profitability: Our edge lies in finding VALUE – horses that the market has underestimated based on our probability models.

Zero Hype, Just Results: We’re not here to hype up short-priced favourites. We’re here to help you find smart selections.

How to Use Our Ratings

Option 1: Bet All Top Rated Horses

Place a bet on all horses rated 1st in each race.

Expect variance, but over the long term, profitability can be achieved but the caveat here is odds on favourites will not produce long-term profit.

Option 2: Seek Value Overlays

Compare the horse’s odds with its implied probability.

Example: If our top-rated horse has a 30% chance but the odds are 4/1 (20%), that’s a value bet.

Option 3: Focus on Big Priced Value

Our 2nd and 3rd rated horses often come in at higher odds.

Betting on these selectively can yield massive returns.

Just reach out if you need anytghing further.

[Richard Levett]

Hi Robert and welcome aboard!

In order for me to potentially help you further can you give me an idea of what exactly you are looking for from the Ratings? Do you operate any particular strategies? Are you looking at the Ratings to guide any of your strategies etc?

Just send a quick update and I’ll then get back to you.

[Richard Levett]

This is more a trend than a stat but worth noting early.

11/3/25 – Cheltenham Day 1 – 1440 Ultima Handicap Chase

Trends suggest a strong profile for winners and 10 of the last 12 winners in this race were aged between 7 & 9 and all had a ratings of 140 or higher. Market leaders have struggled with only two favourites winning, though seven were in the top three in the betting.

Now, Cheltenham experience is key here as every winner in the last 12 years had a run out there before!

Stamina – all twelve winners over the twelve years have won over three miles or further before!

Worth noting.

[Richard Levett]

Today’s EYECATCHER

1405 Taunton – Sherminator 5/4 – 1st

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