tim winnett

[tim winnett]

Newbies its worth a read
Increase stakes increase risk but learn to manage the down side risk.

Update to Reply 1.39pm

Pre race Trade.
Awa Bomba “hood” worked again and won however, as a trade the variables did not add up (probably why its price drifted)
Amazing grazing was 16 5min to the off and down to 11 whilst going behind 5 ticks Profit. Cashed out.
Just stating The differnt ways to use TPS ratings.
Alternative: Could have used the 5 ticks prifit to pay for a wager on Awa Bomba (free bet)

Increasing stakes has a huge effect on ones ability to maintain a ballance sheet, been there and done that.
The bookies are awash with money for this reason.

ANY RATING SERVICE Timeform, TPS, ect ; its infomation thats all, only backed up by a past performance
Some win some loose and the ratio is more loose than win using ratings. My earlier post was there to be shot down
POINT IS if your a newbie making it pay is more important than having a runner win. ??

Reply to richard
“My mate Bob”

Any chance of giving a running total at level stakes on the naps ? Be good info for the followers.

[tim winnett]

Reply to 11.10am

Increasing your stakes
Firstly, what was your expected return on capital, & has it been achieved.
What increments have you set in place for increasing stakes.

Secondly; are you following blindly or agreeing with your own research.
E;g Awa bamba best bet by the vast amount of pundits. 40% chance of winning ??
It may win but just under even money at southwell ( will the hood work again)
There are to may variables like amazing grazing at 14/1 offering value ?

However, In amswer to richards question, information is the key
As i have stated if a race has been analyzed and not just rated expecting the runner to
Either repeat the number or better it. Then a little research an pre – trade the race
Not intersted who wins just which way the market will form every little info helps

[tim winnett]

Reply

Firstly, the nap selections have been a exciting addition and
produced good indicators at fair prices so far.

Whilst, some of my posts may hint of a moan, That is far from it.
I understand the selections are a seperate selection, however
Just having suffix (Post fix) on the main card would be of help
To us excel users. That is If the naps are going to be long term addition.

[tim winnett]

Reply to Richard 8th oct,

Unfortunatly f/c or tri/casts Is not my type of bet. However, understand
Your metrics may be different to Matts.
T.P.S data can present itself in different forms as I stated looks like some one analyzed
the race a bit better. How one interprets the data on offer is essential to success.
As much as finding odds that are higher than the implied chance. Therefore, having the
Nap bets as a seperate thing, would it not be better to incorporate it into the main cards
In the format like best bet of day.
The TPS model for highlighting winners may benifit from a meeting of the minds between the
people using the metrics to produce the ratings. As much as peopke ask for matched ratings
This could be another addition that could help.

Regards

[tim winnett]

Tavus, baltic song , proton, pour me a drink
Did any one else spot that the 2nd,3rd,4th were highlighted
And the winning nap bet was not even rated,
Two things spring to mind; some one analyzed this race a bit more than usual.
Quality rather than quantity. With the last few days results your making the
Other very important service look very bad especialy as it was a 3 card trick race.
Take nothing away from the result all 4 runners placed, thats how a rating service should
Strive to be. Cut the 2yr old races out and spend more time on the other ratings.?.

[tim winnett]

Power link
Pre race trade 6.8 down to 5.6
£49.00 TO WIN incl pre-race trade LOST
£40.00 @ 2.8 2TBP return on trade
£100.00 @ 1.75 4TBP return on trade

Ok came 2nd from an exaggerated draw plus the 3yr old was up by 9lb from previous race.
However, there was a return on the trade as stated on the forum from 23rd august

The most important thing to take from this, If your new to tps or trying to make it pay.
TPS may have rated the winner as 3rd rated and the 2nd was not even highlighted
The point is your own research is how you will make it pay and combining TPS rating
In conjunction with yours. E.g; If powerlink was highligted my trade would be very different.

Having a winner is great but the return on investment is far more inportant.
The other option would have been just to pre-trade the race (powerlink)
and cash out before the off. Via the exchange.

Remember a strategy is aimed at achieving a long term goal. BUT You will probably run out of money before you even score your first goal.
Dont strive for winners, aim at making the ballance grow.

I have wasted so much time looking at so called winning strategies and tipsters and this is a good bet at 4/9 merchants
If your new to horse racing take the best tip for free Dont trust any info except your own,
Especialy the exchanges, as they have a very long time lag during when in racing + a lot of spoofing bets prior to the off.
The media and most tracks with any bias the bookies have built that price in already on the runners.

I have seen so many people loose money to bookies, because the metrics they use to find a winner is there for all to see
And the bookies have far more info than almost any one. Look for value is the only way. Having 10 bets and finding
3 winners at 2/1 is not realy going to make the ballance sheet look good or even 6 winners at 8/11
2yr olds are a big no no for trading as once they come under presure they will find nil and the main priority of
The rider is to look after the runner, (rightly so)

If any new member reads this rant I hope it is of help and good luck.

[tim winnett]

Power link runs this evening
As mentioned on 23rd Aug in the forum
One to watch out for when it runs next
Trading at 5/1 or 2tbp 2.8 or 4tbp 1.75
Lets see if it can overcome the 9lb rise??

[tim winnett]

Any thing that can give a methodical and structured approach, would help
However, variance and back testing does not state what the future will bring.
It would in my opinion with the information you have is to have the best lay bet of the
Day (A runner that has it all against it) the returns are even money ( via the exchanges)
Which is better than most runners that are good things??. for me a steady flowing ballance sheet is far better.

[tim winnett]

V.I.P
Matts number crunching worked today? Keep crunching.
However, whilst todays was rated 5lb superior to the 2nd and 16lb to the others
At level weights and other elements added up. it was a good shout.

The best part of the selection was there was enough data to cross reference with and
Know the possible risk Vs Reward from the information given.
Not like the silly 2yr old races.

NICE ONE MATT,

[tim winnett]

Reply to Mr Byrne,

Any one who backed lasting legacy was either connected to the owner
Or a chancer, The rating was based on 6f as thats all it has run over in it last races it
Lost by 7 lengths and again 4.5 leengths & never raced on a All Weather track
But as the numbers may have added up on this one based on non form data.
The 8pm race Rochford top rated. Some of the data you could ague about then got beat by
A 33/1 shot who was not at all rated ? However, in answer to the question
Was not me but i would be interested to know how many members diid back it.
Trading is about evaluating the information. The 7pm race had no info to back the rating up, thats
In my opinion why it was the price it was,

[tim winnett]

Richard,

Yep Ithought as much and rightly so a bit of light hearted banter,
Is great for all to express there opinions. However,
I do agree with you, But when you have that large investment
On many occasions they tend to find very little under pressure.
Thats the main reason i do not tend to back them.

Keep plugging away at those Irish ratings for us all.

Kindest Regards.

[tim winnett]

Reply to Richard 2nd sept

One person who does not back 2 yr olds as a rule is me, however
Good news if someone can have some luck with them, but my rule is
Unless you realy know something, or are the owner, these runners are
The future profit not the present.

Its all about opinions but on another note; I am glad your back on the Irish ratings
Certainly missed scanning them?

Regards

[tim winnett]

Reply to Mr Denis 26th Aug

A car crash it would seem for the vip service, however, take a look at betinfo24 website regarding the vip service
Very strange that the vip service has not been updated as well. Is this not ment to be a proofing site???
Your right that making the rating service work for your needs is where the ratings strengh is. In my opinion the
Add on stratergies are what make a lot of people expect to much from the ratings for little effort of there own research and intelegence.

Nice to here from you Good luck with your daily targets

REGARDS

[tim winnett]

Reply to denis 26th aug

Firstly: lets hope Richard is back soon (excellent irish rating certainly missed that info)

“Realy” ?? Interested in 2yr olds, I am intersted in why spend any time in this venture.
In my opinion better to concentrate on the V.I.P service or is it thats down the pan lets
Start another one for people to buy into. Better to offer a fine tuned rating system either
Update the existing vip service or scrap it. In my opinion I use the ratings as a form of
Quality info if the information is good people will pay. Example Timeform
Stratergies only work if the other party does what you anticipate, ask a chess player.

[tim winnett]

Some good points raised in a skype conversation (Q & A), which may be of help to a new member/new to horse racing investment

1, opinions on chance “Vs” Rating
The rating be it hcp rating or speed rating was based on past performance.
2, percent of winning favs per year approx 30% on average.
3, Speed ratings will give a good a indication of a runners fitness
4 A hcp rating is based on what it has raced against.
5 hcp mark “Vs” weight, track & ground is the main deciding factor in hcp races.
6 Tipsters, if thery were any good they would be a profesional gambler. Not a tipster
7 winning bets. Are they or have they been based on probability or predictability
8 I think this should win from its current mark (prediction = pundit)
9 From your research and from your own calculation probably win or at least place (probability = profesional)
10 If your not making a margin each month then time has no value (invest in a rising asset gold silver bitcoin)
11 Stratergies are not relevant when starting out, best to build a system for a lazy brain to concentrate on finding investment probabilties.
12 specialise in one area flat / jumps or hurdles even allweather. Then select a range of distances e.g: 7f -1m4f
13 learn how to hcp a horse be it hcp mark BHB website or timeform then learn how to compile speed ratings nick mordin or buyer read books??
14 wealth of info out there use it with critical thinking its there opnion not yours. And its your money not theirs.
15 if you base you investment selections on luck, boredom, chance, hear say, Then your paying for your entetainment??
However one runner to note for the allweather in its next few runs power link 6f
16 look for an edge be it a jokey for a certain trainer or certain trainer at a particular track
17 avoid 2 yr olds unless you realy know something ???

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