stan jones

[stan jones]

April 4, 2017 at 11:08 am #16625 REPLY

Carl
Participant
William, i dont understand why you think I have a “problem”, just because I’m interested. I find the whole dynamic fascinating. I won’t lie, id like to see more members contribute, as this gives the forum more buzz. As for whether you post or note, doesn’t phase me either way. As you said, we all pay our subs, and use the forum in our own way. This is how i choose to use it. Sorry, if that caused you a problem.
April 4, 2017 at 10:55 am #16624 REPLY

William Donaldson
Participant
Hi Carl, You seem to have a problem with us ‘silent’ members. The fact is that we don’t all have the time nor the inclination to post on these forums, personally I am still trying to formulate a strategy that works for me. If and when I think I have something worth sharing then I am more than happy to do so. Surely we all pay our subs and are entitled to use the service as we wish?
NOW NOW CHILDREN LET’S NOT TURN THIS INTO CAT FIGHT LOL,I UNDERSTAND WHERE BOTH ARE COMING FROM ,CARL AND ROBERT ,JACQ,RICHARD,MATT PIPPIN,DEAN,AND SO MANY PUT TIME AND INFORMATION ON HERE BUT I THINK CARL WOULD LIKE A LITTLE FEED BACK THAT PEOPLE ARE USING THE INFORMATION,AS IT IS NICE TO KNOW ,WILLIAM ,I UNDERSTAND THAT YOU WANT TO REMAIN SILENT AS MOST MEMBER’S AND WILL CONTRIBUTE IN TIME ,I ALSO THINK THAT SOME PEOPLE FIND THAT WHAT THEY ARE THINKING MIGHT NOT BE WORTH POSTING JUST INCASE IT’S SEEM RUBBISH OR WONT WORK,BUT THE OTHER FLIP OF THE COIN IS PEOPLE WHO DEBATE THING’S GET PLACES,IF IT SEEM’S SILLY IDEA OR SIMPLE IDEA JUST POST AND THERE A WEALTH OF KNOWLEDGE ON HERE TO WORK TOGETHER ,YES I’M WRITING IN CAP’S JUST COULD’T BE BOTHERED TO CHANGE IT ,ANY WAY WORK AS A GROUP POST WHAT YOU LIKE DOES’NT MATTER HOW SMALL BUT DON’T BE AFRAID TO AIR YOUR VIEW’S CONSTRUCTIVLY THOUGH ,ENJOY YOUR JOURNEY ON THIS HOPEFULLY PROFITABLE TRIP

[stan jones]

paul i want you to try something with your selections
1)pick them out .put the price next to them ,the time you put them on paper,
2)put down the price about 8am ,11,am then 12.30 to 1pm
3) check pick out the one’s that have shortened 30%or more
)do in e/w combo
see if this helps it helps me with my selection and im happy with it looking at your 5 3 out of them would of been in my selection ,i know you diss agree with me about price ,but just try it for a week see if it helps ,i know it will

[stan jones]

carl think i jinxed it lol

[stan jones]

CARL LOOKED T YOUR DOUBLE MATCHED RATINGS AND I LOOK AT SOEM RATINGS I SOME TIMES USE AND GOT
2.10
2.40
3.00
#3.40
4.10
4.20
4.30
5.00
SEE HOW HEY FAIR OFF NOTHING MIGHT COME OF IT BUT JUST TO SEE

[stan jones]

elisabeth this is carls method ,
The game is LAY the favorite
All uk handicap races
No bets on non handicap
No bets on any AW races
NO BETS OUTSIDE UK ( so Ireland is OUT)
Odds 1.4 to 4.5
Full recovery 100% @ 100% to include missed win

Not many recovery bets as yet .if it lands on a loss you can carry it to next day or suck it up .both work

[stan jones]

ELISABETH CHECK OUT THE PLACE BETTING I POSTED ,CARL WELL DONE

[stan jones]

i just put that into something else i use it picked out 7 races 1 1sts the 6 lost will check to make sure they were all fav but looks good even stoping after i a day will give you 28 points a month cheers should work well on the flat as not as many fav win as jumps

[stan jones]

carl sorry pain in the arse what was the rules again for your non risky lolalso note 2.20 yest quids in N/R runs today 2.10 stratford

[stan jones]

The new Tapeta surface at Newcastle has only been in use since May this year but it has already produced some startling stats. In particular the record of favourites at the course stands out. Backing all favourites at the course has return a net profit of 11.8% and this now means Newcastle is the best racecourse for favourites:

Best Racecourses for Favourites
Favourites stats obtained from flat turf and all weather races from 03-Dec-06 to 09-Dec-16.

How Can Backing Favourites Be Profitable?
If they are the most popular horse that is

The answer could be due to the favourite / longshot bias. Punters are just not interested in the more fancied runners and are backing the bigger prices instead. As bookmakers have to balance their books this means that favourites are going off at prices higher than they should be.

One way to check this is to look at the strike rate and A/E stats. If the strike rate is pretty much similar to favourites in general, but the A/E is much higher, then this shows that punters are ignoring the favourites and are thus creating this profitable condition.

A more specific test is to look at the record of all all weather racecourses during the same period:

All Weather Favourites Since Newcastle Tapeta Course Opened

Course Wins Runs Win% A/E ROI%
Chelmsford 70 251 27.9% 0.82 -19.3%
Kempton 83 259 32.0% 0.92 -8.8%
Lingfield 43 137 31.4% 0.89 -13.8%
Newcastle 90 245 36.7% 1.09 11.8%
Wolverhampton 85 237 35.9% 1.04 4.0%
All AW Courses 375 1145 32.8% 0.95 -4.9%
Stats for all AW races from 17-May-16 to 09-Dec-16

Newcastle is a real stand out and note too the record of the other Tapeta course; Wolverhampton. In both cases the strike rates are higher than the average and the important A/E figure is indicating that these favourites are doing better than expected.

There is one caution to note with these stats. The Archie statistical test is indicating that the results at Newcastle are quite likely to be due to chance. Only Chelmsford has an Archie figure, which indicates that it’s results are unlikely to be due to chance.

Specific Races
Digging deeper into the stats

The above stats are for all races but examining the System Builder Report for Newcastle Favourites reveals that some favourites are performing way better than others.

The report shows that the following types of races have returned extreme profits and they pass the Archie statistical test:

Best All Weather Favourites at Newcastle

Race Type Wins Runs Win% A/E ROI%
LTO 7th or Worse 12 25 48.0% 1.71 91.5%
2yo races 34 60 56.7% 1.35 38.8%
Colts 31 56 55.4% 1.34 36.1%
FlatStats Rated 60-89.9 60 147 40.8% 1.24 27.8%
Top Weights 38 82 46.3% 1.26 23.1%
Stats for all AW races at Newcastle from 17-May-16 to 09-Dec-16

The real stand out stat from this list is the favourite that finished 7th or worse last time out. For some reason these horses are miraculously overcoming that bad form and are justifying their favouritism. Punters are clearly avoiding these horses and bookmakers are therefore pushing out the prices to be much more generous than they should.

2yo races are very positive too. This could be horses that are lightly raced and trying an all weather surface for the first time. They could have poor turf form but then excel on this surface. As to why they are favourites (but generous favourites) is a bit of a mystery.

All of the above stats pass our standard Archie stats test, which means that it is unlikely these results are just due to chance. One other stat that passes the test could give a clue to what is going on. The system builder report states that some days of the week are better for favourites than others. Tuesday is the best day, followed by Wednesday. The record for Tuesday is 20 wins from 40 runs, 50% strike rate, 1.52 A/E, and 53% profit. The Archie score of 5.4 indicates that these results are not that likely to be due to chance. Thus it could be that midweek races, with hardly any crowds, and hardly any on course bookmakers is making this favourites phenomenon.

[stan jones]

yea it was Richards levett post i was referring to

[stan jones]

Rhicard ,post i m looking at this with e/w sniper yougot to put volume on but at the moment mike is saying it works so i will do list tomorrow and poat ,but will ba end of day i’m using lower risk 7.00 to 20.00 50p e/w to see how it goes
Do you remember the beginning of last week when I posted about the law of large numbers on each way bets on ratings over 7 and under 20? Well if you do and you did, this small £2 each way bets on an initial £200 bank would now be sitting comfortably at £265.52, again, not a kings ransom, but a slow burner that will always turn out profit. Up the stakes to £5 eachway and theres another 3.5 – 4k per year added to

[stan jones]

trying to cut down on selection a bit 14 today and still bit tough ,i do like to watch market for movers but not much movement today so here they are ,rite them down put price next to them and work out bet good luck all
2.40 full intention
2.50 deauville crystal
3.00 inocent girl
3.25 azure fly (extra place )
3.55 armour de nuit
3.45 mercy me
4.10 time for west
4.55 castillo del diablo
4.20 monolouge
4.35 whisky in the jar
5.25 it’s a kinda magic
7.45 celtic artisan
8.15 out of the ashes
8.45 tasaaboq

[stan jones]

jean pierre,i do a couple of things to get selection will try and explain little later on this is still early day’s yet want to see it has some leg’s to it first so far working well but flat starting next wek so see if same method still works not i do use a few other things to see if they got same selection but can still work it off just these and betfair price

[stan jones]

looks a bit tougher today but this is how i see it panning out ,first please paper trade or keep profit target low to start,two ways to play set target stop,set loss amount stop,right this is today selection,if i was you i would look at betting back go to selection put down the price and work out how many looses you would have to have before you stop say if you got £200 betting bank then just go through see if you had 6 loosing trades before you loose all or half cause some days are better than others plus soon be change over from jumps to flat so will be harder agian,if this makes sense to you right lets get on 20 races ive picked out i use betting cal to work out my bets its quicker well for me ,not the brightest lol,just remember not every one of these will win we just need a high percentage to have a good day so this is still in trail mode for selection at the moment for me as well ,and stop if you hit your profit target but then can carry on paper trading to see how they perform.ust looking if you had looser in first 4 races would get high n stakes just paper trade to get used to selection looking at prices there no clear fav out there and prices bit higher than i pick when selecting if prices get highwhen im doing the extra place i will just do the 3 places to bring it down ,today ill be lowering my profit per race to see how it’s going
2.20 stepney
2.30 hungarian rhapsody
2.40 little miss poet (place price short so trying 2places only on this
the speacial one im going for extra place on this
3.00 house of commons gain extra place for me
3.10 jac the legend
3.20 hajjam 2places
3.30 vantage point
3.40 crackle loust
3.50 bookmaker extra place
4.00 nova bridge extra place
4.10 alreesha
4.20 beepeece
4.35 cosmic tiger
4.55 menelik
5.25 moayadd
5.55dulcina
625 the yellow bus
6.55 eskendash
8.25 esclating

[stan jones]

True or you could put into your bit with min place price and stop after target met or 6winners with stake recovery put selection in job done then walk away to carry on with your day ,any way like I said all down to what makes people happy doing

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