Roger

[Roger]

Ray, you would need to factor in to your calculations a longest losing run of 35 (since mid October) and an expected losing run per 1000 of 40.16. Also, just for interest, selections in the range 3 to 3.99 return a 30.93% strike rate a full 10% higher than the best in the 4+ range and odds of 4 to 4.99 actually show a loss overall.

[Roger]

Like everything else on the exchanges the liquidity has got to be there in the first place but assuming it is then the sky’s the limit providing you have the cash.

[Roger]

Carl, there is no limit on the size of BSP stake but if you were to place a really large bet it would reduce the BSP as BSP works by effectively hoovering up the unmatched bets in the market, with persistence, at the off so the more money on the back side pushes the BSP lower down the unmatched lay ladder.

[Roger]

Denis,

4, 7 and 8yo do not generally do well.

Handicap, Apprentice Handicap show profits with SR of 20.2% and 33.33% respectively

Maiden Stakes have a respectable 37.5%SR but show a small loss overall

1m 5f to <2m 42.86%SR 18.07 point profit
2m to <3m – 33.33%SR 0.46 point profit
less than 7f 20.41%SR 11.42 points LOSS
7f to <1m2f – 26.32%SR 1.02 points LOSS
1m2f to <1m5f – 7.69%SR 9.95 points LOSS

Class 3, 4 and 6 produce best profit

Rated 1 & 2 equal performance in terms of profit

These are long term statistics and may not be representative on any single day. So good luck and enjoy the meeting.

[Roger]

Carl, I’ve just edited my last post, they are first rated only.

[Roger]

Hi Carl,

From mid October first rated horses:

Before noon: 40%SR Profit 3.59 points

12:00 – <13:00: 37.86%SR Profit 45.17 points

13:00 – <14:00: 35.42%SR Profit 39.99 points

14:00 – <15:00: 30.59%SR Loss 1.67 points

15:00 – <16:00: 29.21%SR Profit 18.41 points

16:00 – <17:00: 29.17%SR Loss 5.34 points

17:00 – <18:00: 28.57%SR Profit 2.31 points

18:00 – <22:00: 24.21%SR Loss 11.89 points

[Roger]

Well done Carl on getting on Dubaitwentytwenty, I don’t do maidens so I was not on that one. 25% recovery will be less nerve wracking certainly until you build up a more substantial bank.
Just for info loosing runs of 12 / 13 do happen on the first rated so those new to the site should be aware of that when planning strategies.

[Roger]

Hi Carl,

You make some good points and I agree with you but if your 8/1 horse had only been 2/1 and the one after 2/1 then what. You would then need to decide whether to carry on or stop, or have a bank with sufficient steam to carry through the losses and potential future ones otherwise it’s a wing and a prayer. But you are right in that in the main the selections do come good so it’s all a matter of what you are comfortable with and as your stakes get bigger through the cycle whether you can get them accepted which does become a problem with larger targets.

[Roger]

Carl, I absolutely agree with Pippin regarding the merits of your system which works most days because of the quality of the ratings and in no way am I knocking it, I have used SAW for many years with great success but I have also had my fingers burnt. All I am doing is putting the marker down to warn others of the potential loss when even a small downturn occurs. As I have already said how individuals manage it is down to them.

[Roger]

Hi Brian and welcome, you make a valid point and yes Diamond Kut did win but equally it may not have done and as you say today could have carried on the losses. It boils down to what you are comfortable with, some would invoke a stop loss at 4 losses for others it may be 6 or whatever but I do maintain that a stop loss, at whatever point should be a consideration.
If you have a big enough bank then any SAW system will perform providing your selection method is consistent, you can carry on and on until you hit the winner and recover all your previous losses. You then run into the problem of bet size and whether it will get taken particularly if you are constantly winning, which in this scenario you would be. Small target and large bank would mean you don’t need to worry about stop loss but I’m still not convinced it is the best way forward. But at the end of the day each to their own and what works best for them.

[Roger]

Hi Carl,

I admire your optimism regarding yesterdays performance but if you were to stick to the rules of your system then yesterday would have been quite brutal without the protection of a stop loss. I know you include other selections which help to mitigate any loss on the day, providing they win, and I agree with you that a win is a win but it is difficult to attribute such wins to you system when they are included outside the rules.
Your SAW system is a tried and tested method of betting on consistent selections but the losses and future liability can quickly run out of control without the application of a stop loss as part of the system.
In answer to Pippins question, I would take the losses on the chin and reset particularly at this time of year as Robert has already said racing performance can be poor. I do know punters who do stop on the day and carry on the next from where they were but you do need to have confidence with the performance of your source selections, and remember even the best selection method runs into that inevitable bad run at some point.

[Roger]

Hi Andy,

Bit late to tell you but you would go on the 1:15. The 90 min is across all the cards. It’s up to you if you want to include the Irish.

[Roger]

Hi Andrew,

Just to clarify what Pippin has explained. The 1st and 2nd rated horses come from the Todays Ratings section sorted into race order.
You place the bets one at a time and once you know the result of the first race you either stop if your target is met or yo go on to the next race with the increased stake.
Todays first five races provide the following selections.

1st Rated
12:35 Bangor Twenty Eight Guns
12:50 Chelmsford Bois De Boulogne
13:05 Bangor Krackatoa King
13:20 Chelmsford Curzon Line
13:30 Wolverhampton Tegara

2nd Rated (if 1st Rated Non Runner)
12:35 Bangor Double Treasure
12:50 Chelmsford Naseem
13:05 Bangor Millicent Silver
13:20 Chelmsford Street Duel
13:30 Wolverhampton Nags Wags

Good luck.

[Roger]

Hi Carl,

I think you will find it here.

strikelineracing.weebly.com/

[Roger]

Hi Roy,

I agree with Roberts comments particularly with regards to using the ratings as pointers along with your own research and betting style.
You will find that in general the first rated selections outperform the second over time.
All weather performance is good for Handicap and Classified Stakes races, not so good for Maidens.
Hurdles outperform Chases particularly with Novices Handicap, Maiden, Selling Handicaps, first rated outperforming second in the long term.
Chases I tend to leave alone but 1st Rated Beginners do ok.
As an example of betting both rated horses I placed level stakes bets on Handicaps at Chelmsford last night and made a nice 30.61 point profit. Obviously you cant guarantee that everyday so you need to know when to stop, keep accurate records and have a good money management strategy.
Anyway Roy welcome to the forum and good luck. Let us know how you go on.

[Author]

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