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Michael Wilkinson
MemberSorry Carl but I do not list them seperate so cant do any analysis.
MemberCarl. I was just pointing out yesterdays. In fact between 3rd and 31st january there was/is a profit of in excess of £3000 using £20 level stakes [betfair] put on both 1st and 2nd rated. When I cull out the less productive race classes that becomes a profit in excess of £8000. That profit increasses when those classes with a +30% win rate have increased stakes. I have used Matt’s weekdays and Richard’s Irish + Sunday ratings for this analysis.
MemberWell here is hoping for a better day with the ratings. Yeaterday, if a level stake of £20 was placed on every first and second rated the loss would be circa £400. The short odds first rated ruled the roost which did not help. So today we want plenty of long odds second rated winners please!
MemberJust dont mention Drumcliff! I reckon it was a bookies false favourite especially as bookies took my bets without any restrictions.
Memberthat should be “better”. I do not cheat with a word check!
MemberRobert, last night you asked if I had fallen asleep. No I was not. I am recovering from a nasty blow when I let greed get the bewtter of me! How are the dogs going now?
MemberYes Robert. Yesterday was a disater for me also. I wish I had heeded the warning! Good luck for today though.
MemberCarl – it is still erly days yet. all I can do is to list what the figures say.
MemberMy analysis of results since 2nd January give the following forcast for today of both Matt’s and Richard’s ratings for race type/class.
To avoid – Races with less than 20 wins:
2-00 PUNC -NONHCAP CHSE 3
3-10 MUSS -HCAP CHSE 4
4-20 TAUN -***BUMPER***
4-30 PUNC -***BUMPER***
4-40 MUSS -HCAP HRDL 5
4-50 TAUN -1-30 PUNC
On the other side of the coin – Races with over 30% of wins in a race:
2-30 PUNC -NONHCAP HRDL 2
3-00 PUNC -HCAP CHSE 3
3-30 PUNC -NONHCAP HRDL 2
4-00 PUNC -HCAP HRDL 2
1-40 MUSS -NONHCAP HRDL 4
1-50 TAUN -HCAP HRDL 0MemberThank you Chris
MemberCan someone tell me what “rfc” means behind a ratings selection. Thanks
MemberCarl. I have the 3.15 down in the danger zone but in fact it is based on 2 races of which there was not a winner. I for one would not go against Drumcliff as its being set up for cheltenham.
Member3.00 Sand Behind Time
MemberCarl – yes you are right. My source shows it as a Hunter Chase but I see on Sporting Life it is a Non Handicap Chase Class 3 but I have only 3 results of which 2 won. So I would be cautious
MemberMy ones to avoid as past experience pf race/class shows less than 20% ratings winners:
1-15 SAND – HCAP CHSE 2
1-25 LING – AW HCAP 5
12-50 LING – AW HCAP 5
12-55 MUSS – HCAP CHSE 5
1-30 MUSS – NONHCAP HRDL 1
1-40 WETH – HCAP CHSE 2
1-50 SAND – NONHCAP HRDL 1
2-05 MUSS – HCAP CHSE 2
2-30 LING – AW HCAP 4
3-00 SAND – HCAP HRDL 1
3-15 MUSS – HCAP HRDL 1
3-35 SAND – HCAP CHSE 2
3-40 LING – AW HCAP 5
4-00 FAIR – HCAP HRDL 0
4-25 WETH – ***BUMPER***
4-30 FAIR – ***BUMPER***
6-15 NEWC – 3YO AW HCAP 5
7-45 NEWC – AW HCAP 4
8-15 NEWC – AW HCAP 5
My ones to back well as past experience shows in excess of 30% winners from ratings.
1-05 WETH – NONHCAP HRDL 4
1-10 FAIR – NONHCAP CHSE 0
12-40 SAND – NONHCAP HRDL 3
1-45 FAIR – NONHCAP CHSE 0
2-15 WETH – NONHCAP HRDL 4
2-20 FAIR – HCAP CHSE 0
4-15 LING – AW NONHCAP 5
7-15 NEWC – AW NONHCAP 5 -
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