vince bradbury

[vince bradbury]

For later
CH 6.40 Dynamo Watt. I did have an angle on Dynamo Watt to beat Momentofmadness at chelmsford but that fav is now out. So DW is my pick – loves Chelmsford- a lot of horses don’t. The new fav/2nd Fav haven’t got consistent form at CH so DW still looks good.

FL 2030 Samdibien. Was giving Pongo Twistleton 12lbs when beating that rival 4L on last run at Southwell. PT ran well last time at Huntingdon but form indicates the horse likes right handed tracks only. Ffos Las is left handed akin to Southwell.

Will post any other insights if I stumble across them

[vince bradbury]

Neil

I would prefer the ratings second selection – Caledonian Laird. Misu Pete came 2nd last time in a really poor race that was won by a 14 race maiden from out of the weights; I can’t see an angle for obviously overturning Air of York. CL – has solid form based on the penultimate run at the course and there are positives on the last run. If AoY runs to same level as last run then CL will need to improve by at least 7lbs on the penultimate run; on RPRs CL has only ever done this once in 47 races.
As the ratings flagged CL up I didn’t update but it is the value/safe bet to place at 11/10.

[vince bradbury]

Ok longshots for the afternoon venues with logic:

First note – Lingfield is on the turf not AW. Remember there is a golden highway for front runners most of the time. So watch/learn from the first runs to see if it is in effect and the jockeys are using it. The two for Lingfield are in really competitive fields.

L 2.40 Conqueress. If you ignore last run on soft – Sire Dandy Man has poor record on soft ground. Horse has a great profile and has won at lingfield turf….they are on the turf not AW.
L 4.40 Modoree. One of the potential front runners to make the most of the lingfield golden highway and has top speed fig (ATR). Looks like a lenient opening mark by about 7lb on last 2 runs and trainer is 49% (Win & Place) for last 2 weeks. Looks like a plot to me.

W 350 muirsheen durkin. Sire fastnet Rock has a great record on tapeta (24% Win SR cl2-5) – has never ran a bad race since debut. Fav Pavillion will be hard to beat but we have to try and there is value due to Pavillion taking a lot of the market

H 3.00 reckless serenade. 2 wins at Ham with soft…last run is franked by all but one horse ahead – all winning/running v well. Hamilton could be soft/good soft with the forecast rain by the time this race goes off.

Your decision – I’m just informing of an angle

I’m trying to find an angle to take on Air of York (W 5.20) but can’t see a good one yet but will pass on if I find one. It has taken so much value out of the market that a good ew will be very profitable.

[vince bradbury]

Apologies for the first two but the last two won – so you should be up significantly.

Too be fair shirataki got significantly hampered when making its run and kestreldotcom just could not find a way through the wall of horses (the jockey should have switch outside earlier).

So I am happy – Elizabeth…I hope you feel better now…but I only put up my views and its your decision to follow

[vince bradbury]

Carl -me too. I can’t see all 4 winning but can see value in an ew yankee or adding one or two with a a couple of good shots – Pekanheim, playful sound and someday

My best yankees are always 2-3 good shots with a solid 6/1-10/1 opportunity

thanks

[vince bradbury]

A few outsiders for today….with reasoning
Not
5.20 Shirataki – this is a hands and heels race – this horse only had 1 tap when second last time out (12f). Miningrocks (fav) didn’t see out the 10f last time

Kempton
8.20 Kestreldotcom – trainer jockey combo….best form at war but 2 runs this year at Kemp are solid on collateral form
8.50 king calypso – last run to nexttraingone is franked and on weights could have the horse 10lb well in
9.20 Athassel – this looks like a plot by D Evans. The horse only performs on aw and has been thrown on the turf the last twice in amateur/lady races. But will need to be at best to beat golden wedding

[vince bradbury]

I quite like the following today for trixie-super yankee use:
Cu 2.25 petiticoatgovernment – getting a lot of support
H 3.30 Second Thought
Chester – Fastnet tempest, Headway and Voski

[vince bradbury]

AvB has worked v well so far today – 7 from 7…with 5 to go. Ive just been doing a £2 track on it for the last few days and it has held its own. If this continues I will recover investment in 2 bets (£10) then keep investing half winnings going forward. Will let you know how it goes

[vince bradbury]

Best bets today look like….

N 3.10 Shargiah
N 4.10 Omran
B 3.20 Black Bess
B 3.50 Roy Rocket
N 3.00 Coeur De Lion

I have tut them in a super yankee but just seem the matched ratings and could swap Roy Rocket for Tommys Gael…. all look good

[vince bradbury]

richard – thanks for the hard work today. it was ok today…cant relive there were 4 fallers-as i was on all of them. But thats the way it goes

[vince bradbury]

3-6 Play
An approach i use (quite a lot on sundays – but can be anytime) is to spot races with only 3 – 6 runners. Then using ratings, tips, etc use a selection per race for a heinz bet. Normally (its obviously down to the odds) if I can find 3 out of the 6 I am up. Like today I normally find 1-2 very easy to spot the selection and 2-3 are really a 1 in 2 pick. So today i am going with:
MR 2.55 Allthegearnoidea. Ratings have B Joe
MR 4.00 Baby King. Ratings have Yorkist
MR 4.30 William Money
N 3.45 Alpha Centauri
S 2.45 Celestial Dancer
S 4.50 Sand Blast

For a £5.70 bet its a nice low cost/nice reward balance. If you feel tempted you can push the accumulator in for an extra £1.

If anyone has better selections please let me know….after a poor Dante Meeting I’m playing low risk for recovery; but I am still up significantly since joining TPS.

[vince bradbury]

Simon

Good info. I love Ripon and agree with Roys Legacy – Pearl Noir will try to make all but falter with 2f to go as usual; Leaving RL or Ent Ben to clean up. I always find front runners in good form in races under 10f to be a good angle at Ripon. Has the biggest pace bias in the UK.
termsandconditions, warm love, gurkha friend, sanders secret and roys legacy all match the profile from the ratings. I feel a little super yankee coming on for these

My mate is running a horse there today(El nina Sea)….there are 4 good horses that have all raced against v good horses with creditable results and we can’t split them – 2 are in the ratings. Unfortunately his horse isn’t one of them!!!!

[vince bradbury]

I was at Hamilton 12 days ago and saw a few of the nags running there tonight and spoke with a few owners….so here is a hopeful trixie:
Be Kool – was 2nd last time but a good win was really expected by owners
kensington star – really green but got the idea a few furlongs out and almost won
sea of green – hasn’t got much to beat. Trainer thinks it is going to have a great run of racing until chapter catches it

[vince bradbury]

well the yankee and york was poor – so i needed to contribute something positive today

onwards and upwards – as ever the Ireland ratings and tips are doing the business.

[vince bradbury]

Hoping for a better day at york – great encouragement that the 4 i really fancy are in the ratings…York
14:20 sole d’leu
14:55 THE BLACK PRINCESS
15:30 rekindling
16:05 firmament

Yankee time me thinks…best of them has to be rekindling after his win over the O’Brian stable last time. The first and last are solid performers and the mare is a the soft ground fancy.

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