vince bradbury

[vince bradbury]

ayr 4.55. From tracker and previous post – Dark Crystal. June- July Soft in going at Ham/Ayr….terrific strike rate. Already 2 wins and 2 places for 2017. Last two places in Cl4 with in form opposition; wins in Cl5/6. Back to Cl5 today and it will be GS minimum by the time they race. 14/1 ATM.

[vince bradbury]

I must be getting old as I am getting bored of low priced selections. So started looking at a different system yesterday that went well.
Glad to see ratings support for Ionization, Tor and Master of Heaven – all have great logic to selection. But I can’t get away from these three. I was hoping for ratings support (which was there yesterday with Amy Blair and Bronze Beau).

B 2.45 – Welsh Inlet. Positives – there is v little good course form in the race except WL & Carcharias. 2nd over C&D to In form rival on pen run. Last run over C&D was a hot contest for the grade with all horses in form.

B 4.15 – Log Off. Positives – 3rd last run (C&D) down by 1L to 2 well treated and in form rivals (Double C&D winner and a subsequent winner). Should have gone v close but held up too much until 2f out. H Crouch only time riding this horse was a win at Wolves; H Crouch is £19.50 profit at brighton for 2017 – W&P SR of 38%.

H 5.35 – Tinsill . I have to take on Wee Jock – his last race where he won easily was just to bad to believe; all the competition drifted away from the rail where you absolutely had to be to have a chance. But it was a seller and that says it all. So the substance of that race is v questionable. I can only go with Tinsill. Last three placed efforts were on slow ground. He is reunited with R Scott who rode him 3 starts ago when 2nd over C&D and that form has been franked significantly. All other runs since have been on good and poorly ridden/positioned. It is tipping down up here in Scotland and it will get soft by 2pm. If good I would have gone with Harpers Ruby but no soft form… maybe a FC (HP, T and WJ)

[vince bradbury]

Down Royal 1850 – Cant believe Rashaan is 11/8…bet of the day.

[vince bradbury]

Asc 2.20. Miss temple City. I want to oppose Ribchester due to the draw but can’t see the other principles (LS/M/D) reversing form with Rib. So different view is Miss TC. Has run well twice at Ascot and collateral form with Tepin puts her on par with Lightning Spear. Loves firm ground. Good chance of EW thievery and an angle for an upset.

[vince bradbury]

Whilst writing my thoughts Sir Dudley has come in from 16/1 to 9/1

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts on todays racing…..

Car 4pm – Ralph Boy looks overall very inconsistent but he is always at his best from june -aug. Since Joining the present yard (2014) all wins have been June- Sep except 2 in May. Also going right handed the record is 10 places from 12 runs (inc 3 wins). Unfortunately the only run at carlisle was one of the unplaced attempts; but at 14/1 the seems to be in the price.

Not 6.30pm – Sir Dudley. Not be seen for a while but in class 5 on grass he is 1/1. In Cl5 is 2/5- with a place in one of the others. Been off a while but this is his first real break since a 2 year old. By Arcano – the Sire is now 13% SR in last 12 months and is better on LH course and firmer ground and these items raise the SR to 40%.

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts for today
Y 2.20 – Rainbow rebel – got a great speed figure for last run and this is slightly easier than cl2 on penultimate run where only the red hot Briardale beat him
T 3.30 – firmdecisions – beat gothic empire last time and no reason for reversal. Classic Seniority has a really poor draw
San 3.45 top beak- has the beating of Shargiah on collateral form via Ripoll. Down in grade; where as shariah is up in grade. Watch for price moves for Zamperini – great course form but out of sorts at present.
San 4.45 – mallarkey – beat a next time listed winner. Admittedly did not get the extra furlong on soft last time but looks massive at 7/1

Old harry rocks looks a slam dunk at NA

[vince bradbury]

Thanks – Kestrel.com made the money. Attain was a bet to nothing (placed at 7/1) and Birnham Rocks got beat…shame King of Scotland was withdrawn (the ground did go firm). I did lay Birnham Rocks and hope others took the advice.

Leop 6.15 – I fancy petticoat- the 2nd to Anne reads exceptionally well against the protagonists

Haydock – The ratings confirm most of my fancies but the two not mentioned are Intrude (another who likes straight flat courses) and Boycie (last win is vg form).

All others are in the ratings

[vince bradbury]

I can’t believe Attain (New 5.20) is 7/1. Is the most consistent in the field and has the best amateur onboard. I saw this horse at Bath when it won and I can’t see it not being at least placed.

I have also seen the pre-race notes for new 4.50 for one of the top fancied horses. Its pretty comprehensive – the assessment is that Birnham Rocks RPR for last race maybe exaggerated due to American Craftsman tactics and the race fell apart. They think King of Scotland is a bet to nothing providing the ground doesn’t go too firm. B Rocks won’t like the firm ground is their assessment.

I was really happy to see my notes were backed up by the ratings for kestrel dot com, desktop and artic angel. All three look value. KDC runs really well on straight tracks but bombs out on turning tracks….he has it straight today

Only other comment for the days racing – Not 3.20 – Magical Effect looks too progressive not to be in the thick of things. Got a couple of good competitors but all have not won/look to be at the top of their handicap ability…lots of RPRs are levelling out for them except G Bowen

[vince bradbury]

With the predicted rain across the country – with most of it missing Ireland – best to tread carefully. So irish fancies from the tracker today:
Listowel
3.55 Admiral Brian – exceptionally consistent and placed in 3 of last 4 races. 14/1 is great value for at least another place
4.25 Killiney Court – was running a great when fell at the end at Cheltenham. Has a 19% win SR and 33% place SR. 10/1 seems way to high this morning despite there being some good opposition
Gowran Park
3.05 – Heartfelt. Been following since win at Dundalk – running very well. Will frank Canary Row in 4.40 if runs well. 1 win & 4 places from 10 starts – feels like a safe ew.

[vince bradbury]

In response to negativity – i say the following:

As a newbie – I like the site as it gives you really good guidance. But we are betting – it is not investment- if it were the horses would know what was expected of them and the result they need to achieve. The ratings can give guidance on projected outcomes but cannot guarantee. Hence the need for systems.

I for once had a bad sunday – but good saturday. Normally vice versa. But on reflection – yesterday I focussed on value and today due to personal stuff was lazy and just followed the ratings without applying my normal logic. I had 5 horses in my tracker that won today but ignored them in favour of the ratings – because i was lazy(2 were second ratings). My fault not the ratings. The rating will never be 100% all the time…because the end of the process is an animal that like us can have a bad day and definitely does not know that previous form means it should do abc today. Betting is about stats, form, data and occasionally gut feel.

This site is much better than a lot and the support from members adds value.

[vince bradbury]

Just one so far

doncaster 18:30 lady lekki has won 1st time out for past 2 years- all ground suits and has RPRs above the rest/ been dropped 2lbs for some silly reason.

[vince bradbury]

Richard

well done – the irish ratings are exceptionally consistent in profit. Many Thanks

[vince bradbury]

Not a great day for the long shots only one winner. 8/1 winner so covered the cost of the losers.
Lessons – Mordoree…follow next time as got severely impeded. Muirsheen durkin…follow next time again as got poor position.
Hamilton…didnt rain enough for my selection.
Fairyhouse…Hailstone…look for a front runner in sprints; ideally a horse that is good over an extra furlong. Worked today

I am also finding the evening work is keeping me ahead of poor day meetings…..Just an observation

May not be able to post any long shots tomorrow due to work and travel- unless there is decent 4g on the train

[vince bradbury]

Last one

F 615 Hailstone Fairyhouse is a good hunting ground for front runners. Hailstone is one of only two in then line up is running- effetcive over further so can really go for it well.

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