vince bradbury

[vince bradbury]

Observations for today i do this sometimes

Rating going v well but part of the forum is to share insights. So here is my penny worth…

S 2.30 Duke Of Bronte. Glad it was flagged as a long shot earlier but is now 2nd Fav. But watch for nadaitak. If this horse bolts up then really consider Circulation in the D 8.55. In that race I prefer Lightly Squeezed but may consider a change.
S 3.05. Billesdon Brook. This is between the two TPS and BB. Got to go with BB on the basis that the two 2nds were against 100+ fillies and was just beaten on both occasions. Only one that comes close is So Hi Society (the ORs & RPRs say 5lbs toSHS but 10 point diff on speed figures in favour of BB).
D 5.45. Parish Boy. I can’t go with The New Pharaoh. Has great form at the distance in soft at Cl5; but has never done anything in Cl4. Also he is effectively in a 10lb higher contest today. I ran a VDW everyday and it flags up winners quite often. Today it has Parish Boy way ahead. I have been waiting for this horse to come back to form. It beat Order of St George twice when with Jim Bolger twice. Last ran gave the indication that he is coming back.
D 7.20. Marseille/Kaeso. Between the two on all ratings and speed. Marseille just edges it for me on horses it has competed against in last 3 runs. The last 2 against really good horses.

[vince bradbury]

Neil – glad Jacq confirms mine for S3.05…Ive thrown C Bunting in for the Trip forecast….the three look clear of the rest and its 80-100/1 for the SP

[vince bradbury]

Stan

Larry has a really good method. Since paper trading with it I now use it for most days…

I occasionally tweak/avoid if the first selection does not look right. Like today with Shove it on. I tend to find the non-hap races are more profitable…obvious really as there are highly paid handicappers out there to try and ensure all the horse arrive at the line at the same time.

[vince bradbury]

Larrys method is:

uses the first rated by Matt in the first four non handicap races of the day and larry stops at a winner, staking 1 one the first, if that looses (which is rare) 2 on the second, then 4 then 8

[vince bradbury]

carl – many thanks – i will go with it and lay on BF….it is a freebie £10

[vince bradbury]

rosngir and haymarket …..job done. But got a free £10 bet from b365 in 7pm Chelmsford thanks to Haymarket….nice problem to have.
Carl/Matt – how does Maakaasib rate in the Chelm 7pm? Stalls 1-3 have nearly 50% SR at Chelmsford over 6f. The TPS selections have really negative draws.

[vince bradbury]

carl
Many thanks – helps a lot on a tough day. Cant believe Gworn is 6/1…value bet of the day. The last run was v hot with winners/close to winning coming out of those ahead of Gworn.

[vince bradbury]

Maybe an easier system would be to systemise the strategies that come from the members. The member that comes up with and proves the strategy can get rewarded for the proven strategy (free membership, points, etc) but the strategy is constantly posted by the central team using the methodology. With an income from the members I am sure they can invest in the tech for systemisation – they are just data mines that are run every morning or set up a web query in excel.

For example – 7-20. These could be just posted every morning; Pippins strategy wouldn’t take hours to find the top selections, etc

It would add exceptional value to the membership

[vince bradbury]

Wolves 8.10. Love to Rock – 2nd Selection from TPS. Profile of a Keatley gamble. Been raced over various trips for 3 runs – but is by Fastnet Rock. Probably the best sire stats for tapeta – 75% Place/Win SR. Admittedly better at Newcastle but the ROI at Wolverhampton is higher.

[vince bradbury]

carl many thanks – Restraint of trade hacked up at 7/1 Sp but I got 10/1 BOG….other two were poor but overall very good

[vince bradbury]

Carl – may thanks and great support. I think I will chance the three – swantykay has been very good to me over the past few years for win/place as he normally doesn’t getting punted into a low price due to previous trainer not being very fashionable

[vince bradbury]

Carl

Three of interest today – Southwell 4pm Restraint of trade, 4.30 Bostin and Perth 4.10 Swantykay. Does your filter give the thumbs up?

[vince bradbury]

Richard – thanks i got on at 16/1

[vince bradbury]

Richard many thanks – I had Tommy Taylor and Goodwood Crusader on my tracker and numbers…..TT looks better now

[vince bradbury]

Just for info and a system for anyone to check/analyse/try. I have been matching the ratings with various other publicly available tipsters for a few weeks and an angle that has been most consistent (on all but 1 of 15 days it produced a 1.22 – 1.64 profit). So if you placed £1 on every bet you would be 22%-64% overall at the end of every day on the total bets staked. The angle is the Racing Post app tip selection!!! Matching it to the TPS ratings and Irish rating from Richard has been incredibly consistent. The detail is to use cover/insurance bets – you recover your stake if placed but get lower returns for wins- it doesn’t work otherwise as there are many placed selections; as was the case today. Using BOG increases the return as B365 et al still increase the return if the selection drifts and the cover bet is larger.

Still early days for it to be rock solid but it is worth considering. I have yet to find an consistent angle for accumulators – but if someone finds one please share. As most days the matching is 22+ races(the dataset that has been checked is 394 bets so far over 15 days).

thanks

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