vince bradbury

[vince bradbury]

stan

Thanks – probably holiday time and early week.
But agree we need more engagement – if members have a thought/a different insight from ratings (thats all I post) or info from elsewhere and want to share then it is a good thing to do. I raised the point when joining a few months ago about being shot down and got great support from Carl, richard et al to just post and you will only get support for doing so. Hence I do and only ever get support.
I don’t do it very often – only when I have time/see something worthwhile.

So my lesson for all from last two days – windsor = front runners….just like ripon(preferably low drawn)….lingfield on turf….southwell on AW(but not stall 1 under 1M)….Finding the horse to deliver is the guess thing.

I have found these lines out from others, observation, losing bets, etc….but we have all done the same and should share such insights.

This sport is all about opinions and analysing data that is supportable and exact but has a critical weak link – the horse and jockey on delivery.

I do the non-hcp method for the bank but enjoy the thrill of finding a winner….and all help is very much appreciated from all.

[vince bradbury]

thoughts…
Ayr – will be softer than advertised due to the non stop rain today.
3.15. Chinese Spirit looks too big at 12/1 and looks a good value bet – forget last run (interfered) and last 2 runs give an indication of placing/winning very soon- both franked v well. Other two fancied and not in TPS are Lady Joanna Vassa and Bahama Moon.
Ripon – Im with TPS in all races
Windsor – front runners did well yesterday so todays thoughts are for 5.40 Wild Flower, 7.10 Toulson and 8.10 Golden Easter

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts.

Shame no Richard today as I do like doing a sunday. But here are a few thoughts:
W 3.25. Peptic. Seems a race to try and find the best excuse for not choosing a selection but one does stick out. Penultimate run vs Ravens Lady (OR99) is the best form in the field and on GS. The collateral form is better than Angel of D with Ravens Lady. Last run at Chester is excusable as was drawn out wide and had to revert to being a hold up horse; so too much to do in last furlong. Normally is prominent. Paradwys did not beat much at all in last run.
W 5.05. Grams and Ounces. Due to the nature of the track Windsor can be dominated by prominent/front runners – so worth watching the early races for clues. If the pace angle doesn’t show then G&O is a good bet but otherwise I will just watch as no other horses want to put their heads in front.
C 4.10. Intelligence Cross. So open and with mixed form all over the main protagonists I think this is a great place bet as has been running against very good opposition this year.

[vince bradbury]

thoughts…
1 from 2 yesterday.
Today – day racing looks ok but health warning on the going as Catt & Leic are both in line for a lot of rain. With that I have to swerve only a couple of the TPS horses; all the others are good.
Catt 2.45. Lady Joanne Vassa. See Vermont is a horse I like (backed him last time) and in recent time all his best has been at Mussleburgh. But the nag can’t do anything with soft in the going. Most of the field have the same issue so you end up with 3 choices – got to swerve windforpower due to trainer on cold step and Perfect Words was not in the mood to run last night. So LJV it is.
Leic. 4.30. Peach melba. I have this between Childsplay and PM. VDW and collateral ratings have this to PM by quite a few pounds. CP needs to improve a lot. RFC may be the play though for safety.

[vince bradbury]

Got to back Millies Kiss W5.45……bound to win. Issue is will it be MK or another horse.

[vince bradbury]

thoughts….the non-hcp looks strong again.

Two horses for the day racing missed by TPS (in my humble opinion) are:
Sal 5.00 Gallifrey. Holds nathania on pen run; has kingscote up (22 win SR at Salisbury and W/P of 55%) and previous run v Tiki Makfi at Sundown absolutely makes the form solid.
Rip 4.15 Pete So High. Last three runs have been bolstered many times….surrounded by future winners in every race; seems to have ran into a good bunch in last three runs. I can’t back the TPS selections as O’Meara (R Reserve)as he has only had 1 win in 70 and the other selection can’t win beyond 10f..this is 12f.

[vince bradbury]

Reflections for today’s obversations posted earlier:
Non Hcp Still did well up £15 overall- 2 points
Goodwood – 1 place from 3 so a slight negative
Bath – Stoneyford Lane (6.35) – saved the day and covered all the bets
Newmarket – Summer Chorus (7.30) placed
Galway 8.25 – Cymro — almost got a place. Others were Flaming Sea (7.25) Won and Cosy Club (7.55) …so up
Musselburgh – TPS rating looked good and delivered very nicely
So a very good day 9 bets ex Musselburgh and 14 return…Musselburgh 7 bets and I was 18 points up….rural celebration was the bet of the day

Observations on recent TPS – summer jumping is good and outside of the bigger meetings is doing well….especially in the evening meetings. I will probably swerve tomorrow (due to ITV focus and big day over betting) and await a good Sunday. Looks like 3 good cards…just a tricky Galway meet finish

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts for today:
Non Hcp Still doing well – Larry is all over this. I’m doing the same but dodging Goodwood for Non-Hcp…but will still have fun watching and looking at the place market.

Other thoughts:

Goodwood – great to see shymkent up in TPS….I got 16/1 last night. I also have Kyllang Rock (3.35)and Tomyris (4.40) for similar reasoning – ground, competition not proven on the ground, draw(for those in sprints) and all look like great place bets.

Later tonight seems to be better cards for those looking for better oddds….there are plenty in the TPS ratings but a few outside of them are:
Bath – waseem faris (6.05) been awaiting the return to the form and the last run gave the first sign. Stoneyford Lane (6.35) – been in better company than tonight last twice and this will be a muddle of the race with the ground as most at the front of the market are not proven on soft.
Newmarket – Summer Chorus (7.30) my VDW has it the standout class horse
Galway 8.25 – Cymro….cant understand the long odds for a consistent mid distance player – on first run for new trainer who has been hot with newcomers lately. Lord Yeats will confirm the form in the first race at Goodwood…..hopefully. Others are Flaming Sea (7.25) and Cosy Club (7.55)- trainer/jockeys on fire with good form

Musselburgh – TPS rating look v good for tonight with some excellent prices….should be the venue to focus upon tonight

[vince bradbury]

My non handicap bets for Thursday.
2.10 Nottingham MOTHER OF DRAGONS
2.45 Nottingham ISLAND DRIVE
3.20 Nottingham TRUE COLOURS
4.45 Goodwood RIPLEY
18.40. Ffos Las WATERVILLE DANCER
17.35. Ffos Las. LOPE DE LOOP
18.55. Epsom DOUBLET

Singles & Super Heinz

I have avoided Goodwood due to uncertainty and over betting

[vince bradbury]

Larry – non hcp flat going v well. I started a new account with betfair last Monday to focus on this. Started with £30 – £2 win each bet; once got to £60 I upped to £4 and now up to £6 per win bet. Balance now £136. Been doing the singles as well as the odd Heinz when the numbers allow(10p-£5.70)- today came in with £35. Will continue with this….Still monitoring the Nat Hunt and will update when the dataset looks good enough.

[vince bradbury]

keith

I think this is it
Mustaqbal / Kiwi Bay
6.35 Jackontherocks / Ingenuity
7.05 Computable / Intense Romance
7.35 Ventura Knight / Move It Move It
Call Me Grumpy / Big Storm Coming
8.45 Brother McGonaagall / Cliff Bay
9.20 Bollin Ted / Chauvelin

[vince bradbury]

ok – a wild one here but with logic. Chep 5.05 is a hands and heels ride; which needs looking at in a very different light to the norm – i like RP comments like kept on, made all, finished strongly and avoid weakened, soon ridden, etc. The two at the top of the market fit the bill but no soft form at all.
Two stick out very much – Culloden and Captain Scooby. Culloden got to the front last time and only needed a few whacks to win; he also has a very good strike rate. Captain Scooby absolutely has conditions and the last run he never got the stick and went from last to 5th in the last furlong. He dwelt and gave the field 7 lengths. The riders indicate preference for Capt Scooby………so if Mr Carson can get Captain S out then it should be well rewarded…..i will bet on culloden and do an in play bet if CS gets away.

[vince bradbury]

Larry
Non Hcp Nat Hunt

– yesterday was good for the system (100%) but looking at last 5 days
27th – Worc 2 races 2 winners (1st Rated TPS) 1 placed (2nd Rated)
24th – Cart 2 races 3 places (1 1st rated 2 2nd rated)
23rd – Strat & NA – 5 races. 3 winners (1st Rated; 3 places 2nd rated)

So 9 races – 5 winners.

I will continue to monitor. The system looks ok already but the ROI was depressed by two odds on winners (12%)but it would be a good profit if early odds/BOG was used (44%). Using Saw would have been successful on 2 from 3 days; it may just be Cartmel!!! Which we all know is wonderful to see but is very difficult for punting.

[vince bradbury]

I used SB Sportsbook

[vince bradbury]

Larry et al – on the non hip methods. Make sure you got paid for the first race at Yarmouth ….the TPS Fav did win. A bit of a debacle with the 50/1 winner being the wrong horse….it tuned out to be 69 OR horse

[Author]

Posts