vince bradbury

[vince bradbury]

Night Thoughts.
Catterick.
I mentioned the draw and pace bias 10 days ago and it paid with a win/place. Tonight looks like a few good opportunities for the draw/pace system.
6.30 Demons Rock. Has to be the best bet on the card. Draw ok but more importantly seems the best pace angle. Sorority looks a threat but ground is unknown but pedigree (sire and dam) says he needs firm ground. Same applies to central city.
7.40. Lady JV. I have to stick with her. She has been placed everytime i put her up. She has a good draw and is one of only a couple of pacers. She has 11lb pull with P Words for a neck last time at the track. i can see the TPS selections and LJV all fighting at the line.
8.10. Danot. Lots of cannon fodder in the field. One of only two confirmed front runners and has a better draw than those at the top of the market.11lb pull with Carlovain for 1.5L for last time here where he was also short of room and blocked.
Newmarket. Matched with TPS on all except:
5.50. Cosmic Chatter. In great form and only twice been to the home and both times placed. 6f and 7f are the only two distances at the course where it pays to be up with the pace and this horse has the profile.

[vince bradbury]

Quick thought
Nottingham
4.10. Dubai fifty. I can’t see the rating justification for Precision (hasn’t beaten cl4 and above opposition) and Quloob may have won twice but neither win has franking form. D50 beat Tor last time – that horse won a Cl2 next time. Granted Tor has had low weights for a while but did so against D50 as well and was beaten. Tor has beaten some v good horses lately but not D50 So form is rock solid.
4.40. Indulged. Best bet – last run was behind v good 2 sub winners. The numbers say she is at least 102OR….but here on 93.

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts – 2
Beverley
3.10. Reinbeau prince. The market principles are all drawn wide. Last run was a front running ride and needs to do sane today.
3.40. Chauvelin. Can’t take the risk on the fav that has never transferred AW to turf. So many front runners I have to go for a hold up who runs well here.
4.10. Roaring Rory. Can’t have the ratings selections due to Aphysics draw/jockey (P aspell 2 wins from 142 in 2017) and Y Cool has only ever won on AW and only places at doncaster on turf.

Based on yesterdays results – cover bets and place market look the most reliable markets for salisbury and beverley. Very competitive.

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts
Salisbury
5 of 7 races yesterday were won by front/prominent runners. The two exceptions were very well handicapped hold up horses in races with a a high number of front runners.
S3.20. Subhaan. Front runner and R Varian AW to Turf. Almost worked yesterday
S 3.50. Cribbs Causeway. Gets 3 yo allowance and is the only real front runner – could get a really easy lead. Pacarana is a real threat as is always prominent but does not lead. R Moore is 67% SR at Salisbury
S. 4.50. Island Cloud. Put here that there are so many low grade front runners that it will be a hold up horse that takes the line. Kingscote great SR at salisbury

Will try to look at beverly before 1pm

[vince bradbury]

Keith

I am the same – I only get a chance when I am between things – hence I don’t post consistently. Yesterday was a classic – had a call at 8am and didn’t get time to look at the ratings/races until midday. I only post when I have time and have something different or substantive to the ratings. I hope to have time this morning

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts
Salisbury
2.50. Trick of the light. Placed last stride nabbed
3.50. Billesdon Bess. Won well. 6/1
Beverley
2.10. Arcavello. Won well 6/4f
3.10. International Man. Placed by nk
4.10. Alexander M. Lost last stride nabbed
5.15. Mysterial. Lost Went to hard lost place in last stride

[vince bradbury]

from neil

Frontwell

3.00 Jack Snipe
4.30 Get Home Now

Salisbury

1.50 Autumn Leaves

Beverly

2.10 Our Little Pony
2.40 Gold Stone/Dandys Beano
3.40 Chuvelin

Chepstow

6.45 Prodject Bluebook

Yarmouth

5.30 Hope Is High

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts
Salisbury
2.50. Trick of the light. R Varian has a great record when his horses go from AW to turf first time. They normally improve significantly. I normally do a small bet regardless and is a profitable system.
3.50. Billesdon Bess. or Playful Sound. Only two front runners in the race and they have both shown themselves very tough once they get to the front, though PS likes to stalk rather than lead. So BB could be tough to catch – like he did at goodwood last time. The R Varian horse (Serenada) needs considering if they go off too hard.
Beverley
2.10. Arcavello. The TPS selection has a massive draw bias to overcome….Front running low draws up to 1m are the selections
3.10. International Man. Based on draw and run style has to be the non hcp bet of the day. Form substantially franked from last 2 runs – arabalet and codicil
4.10. Alexander M. Should make all – the selections have got to progress significantly due to weights.
5.15. Mysterial. Same reasons as before but close with Bev Bulllet but does have better speed figures.

[vince bradbury]

Sorry placed my thoughts in general rather than here ….After the first at Ffos Las it is definitely looking like front runners who can handle the ground, distance and probably further.

So my picks are
coal stock
liva
sill believing/hawridge flyer RFC
4.15 – avoid
catcher on the go/moabit
ekayteejay

[vince bradbury]

Trevor

thanks for the tip – my only word of caution is the figures for stalls 12+ at chelmsford over 1m. Andrew Mount put this up last year on GG.com and since then then the figures are 1 winner from 76 runs. Hence you will see most trainers withdraw the runners when they are 12 or above in such contests – stalls 13, 14 and 16 are out already. I really fancied Mustashry (stall 11) but 52% of all winners over 1m have been stall 6 or below and those in stall 11 or above is 11%

There are various data sets out there – drawbias.com below is a bit old now but there are plenty of others that prove the point

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts
Ffos Las
Horrible….will be attritional
2.15 fasten spin – but if the likes of topmeup or incentive run well then we need to find front runners can handle further for the rest of the card
2.45 Coal Stock – has comparable RPR to the fav and gets 11lb…..all three ahead of it on last run over C&D have won and boost the RPR by 7lbs. Will dutch with fav.
Will assess the rest after the first two races as it could be a case of walking away

[vince bradbury]

Just looking at FFos Las and noticed this:
2.45 Coal Stock – has comparable RPR to the fav and gets 11lb…..all three ahead of it on last run over C&D have won and boost the RPR by 7lbs. The fav is too short – Im with coal stack. Unfortunately only 4 runners otherwise a cover bet would have been the call.

[vince bradbury]

Larry – agree and I am following that advice. Just wanted to ensure others are fully aware and understand. I don’t always have time to monitor by race and have put all four on at times – which was exceptionally profitable in early July; but as we’ve seen lately it can be costly.

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts
Thirsk – under 6f prefer higher draw; 1m low draw needed. Prefer front front runner.
2.30 Placebo effect – free bet for me from yesterdays winner at ayr (chinese spirit)- but excellent times is a big threat
4.00 Rose Eclair – due to front runner and draw. G Wizard is a threat but last run(win) at Redcar was on a hold up favouring course
4.30 Mama Africa – best front runner and last run form franked; concern with rosy ryan as it is 1f further and M Africa could go harder from the front than previous races.
5.00 Bolin Ted – bets front runner; I like eyebrow too but not enough evidence to be above bolin ted
5.30 Mr Cool Cash just preferred to Make on Madam due to better franked form.

Non Hcp – Fav 2yo(2pm) 40% SR 3yo(3pm) 47% SR for Win. Top 2 in both races are the ones to focus on

Trainer angle
K Dalgleish – 18% SR at Thirsk….best by a mile. 3 runners today

[vince bradbury]

Larry – just one observation on the Non Hcp SAW strategy. If the second to fourth selection is less than 1/1 you can still make a loss on SAW. I have been through a few example and the classic example is if the third/fourth selection is is less than evans you don’t fully recover the losses of previous bets. You may have highlighted this earlier but I could not see this. An example today would be Nathalie in the third Non HCp – it is 5/6.

thanks

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