vince bradbury

[vince bradbury]

Neil

I do like your selections – ditto on all

[vince bradbury]

Following up Carls post on today looking better than first view…

I really like this lot for the day (not looked at Kempton to Irish yet)
Uttoxeter – 2.30 Exxaro. If he runs like last time v Alcala he will win by 10s of lengths
Carlisle
3.10 – Ormesher
4.40 – Redarna
5.10- Question of faith
Doncaster 2.20 – Demons Rock

[vince bradbury]

oops too quick – posted in general

2.00 or de vassey
3.10 Ormesher
4.00 hedginator
4.20 Hyde Park
7.45 munnstead star

[vince bradbury]

Ok here is mine

2.00 or de vassey
3.10 Ormesher
4.00 hedginator
4.20 Hyde Park
7.45 instead star

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts

I think Ormesher is one of the best bets today….beat a good prospect in Capt Jameson; who yesterday destroyed a good novice field Inc (Ch Richard OR 84). The other TPS selection does not have a soft ground pedigree. Trainer is hot and you can even get a cover/insure bet at 9/4. A lot to like.

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts
Bath 4.40. Showmethewayavarillo is the 1st pick for TPS but if you watch the last two races the horse needs a lot of cajoling via the whip. This is a hands and heels race. This type of race is typically won by a front runner who does not need forceful assistance. Preference would be for Jagonory – only needed 2 taps in both recent wins. He is a front runner and drawn low and bath typically favours front runners from wide draws over 5.5f due to the kink. So consider Barauq for a good 7/4 place bet.

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts
I am trying to find a good yankee – heinz system and will shout when I find a stable system. It worked yesterday with 1 win from 5- which is v profitable. 3 of yesterdays were at epsom. But as to today;;;;;;
Epsom
Always difficult to make all at Epsom and course form is v important; comparable from at Lingfield/Brighton can transfer. Yesterday out of the 7 races only 2 made all and of the 14 who were 1st or 2nd – 8 had epsom/ling/brighton form. But in one race no horses had the form so 8/12. On making all the first was a poor novice event and the other was a steal ride from J Fanning when the others fell asleep.
3.45. Coral Sea. There are only 3 with course/relevant form in the field. Andalusite is a front runner. CD Lady saves her best for Brighton. So Coral Sea sticks out. Won over C&D last time and looks weak as best form is with soft in description. But sire/dam give a thumbs up for good form. Cant have flyboy – picked my wallet too many times. Sorry Carl.
Carlisle 5.15. Yes You. In same class but on weights this is much weaker than the race won last time over C&D. Been the most consistent since June. A good long shot is Ypres who is 2 from 2 for his last visits over C&D…would be a good pick if it dries out. So I will make a call on that prior to the off.

For even more detailed reasons I really like Sands Chorus (R 4.30) – due to brilliant vanguard validation(won yesterday at ripon) and Full of Promise (C 6.45) due to course form. But Carls has highlighted these two already.

Both Coral Sea and Yes You look rock solid place market options at evens and I am throwing in with Full of Promise (car 6.45) and Sands Chorus (R4.30) for a place yankee……and small stakes ew win.
All the best

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts
Y 1.55 – Mukhayyam. The collateral form via Gawdawpalin has this horse ahead of Appeared and red galileo. The front running tactic have bought about big improvements and those tactics have been profitable at york this week.
Y 4.15. Doswell. Form with alba power (via being there) has this horse RPR 10 points higher than RP are posting.
New 3.15. Ode to Autumn. Again on collateral form i have spotted the RPR is 10 points lower than should be. On straight form the horse is 16 points lower than Mildenberger (sal 6.55) who is OR 104 but after last run is more like 110.

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts on yarmouth…..
Yarmouth
First glance is not good….so just small stakes for some evening entertainment. Better than watching eastenders or the football.
5.10 Sakuajima. I tipped up Kyllachys tale yesterday for windsor (won at 11/1). Pure coincidence Saku was in a race with KT that has produced numerous winners/good form. (2 yesterday). I can’t believe this has been overlooked.
5.40 Navajo Storm. I was going to swerve this terrible race until I looked at the 6.40. Dors Law just beat NS last time and is the only form of substance in the race. Issue could be anything and is from a sprint sire -thats not a logical angle. NS for a place
6.40. Dors Law. Was going to swerve but after a long look went with only piece of form….something has to win.
7.40. I can’t have H McG on basis of form is only on S or GS. I have defining moment, justice rock and see vermont very close on lots of angles. One angle that is a differentiator is the jockey…SDS. 31% SR at the course this year.

All at decent odds…but place/small stakes is the call

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts on kempton. Being the only right handed AW in UK I find course form very useful in finding value. As well as 5f is the only real distance for front runners (due to inner track and short run in). So today is for hold up, good draws and course form.

3.45. Satchville flyer. Started career running around kempton wth success but since with new trainer (ran 27 times)has only visited once – 2 weeks ago and was second to a very good improver. Interesting kempton is the only right handed it has ever run on.(as newc, winds, etc are all straight for 6f)

4.15 Intransigent. I like two here based on course form, draw and pace angles. Intransigent’s last run was out in the car park at chester. Has had 4 races in Cl3 since 2014 – 1w 2P and a 4th. 3 of 8 career wins have been at kempton. In fact the horse has run at Kempton 10 times and only been out the frame once and that was in Cl2. Only negative is his stats on returning from a break. Look like a good place bet at 2/1 with a cover bet.
I suspect a plot on athassell due to his trainer and his exceptional stats on AW (8/16 since coming to UK)but he is up to Cl3 and hasn’t proved his form in this class yet. This was the first horse I highlighted here at TPS when joining in May on his last run here at 16/1 and bolted up at 12/1 SP.

The TPS ratings look rock solid on the rest of the card….

At Brighton it looks like low runner numbers so I can easily see an accumulator being the answer….taajub, al ozzdl, hallingham, kings city, buxted dream, ocean temptress and buzzlighyere. Again TPS looks solid….

[vince bradbury]

Looking for an angle to take on the fav in kempton 3.15? Look at Zafaranah 33/1. Looks like a bit of ew thievery – good draw, great sire on AW and pen run beat a Maktoum blot that won twice subsequently now OR79+ prob 84. Could not find any thing else that had an angle to take ambrosia on.

[vince bradbury]

Well windsor was v good 11/1 Kyllachys tale but thirsk pish….but thats the game. TPS was great across all he cards – I hope everyone else followed

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts.

W 6.20. Kyllachys Tale. UAE Queen sire stats says he won’t like soft in the ground as seen on pen start. Snow Squaw has good course form but run style and form points to Kyllachys Tale. I also like carducci for similar reasons but looks to prefer further now.

7.20. Lydias Place. Maazel is a fair call – last run on tapeta would not have suited on breeding. But after 10 runs is not showing itself to be a cl4 horse. I have it between Beck&Call and Lydias Place. B&C pen run is the only real solid run for him so I have to go with Lydia Place who has rock solid form on last two and has a run style for windsor; despite being caught on line in last run by a pick of mine and a blot.

[vince bradbury]

sorry typo – Thirsk 7f and over is a low draw. 5f/6f is a high draw.

3.45. Elysian Fields. H Candy – in last 12months when sending raiders north of nottingham has a 1 in 20 SR – and that was at Ayr. He does not have a great record up north. So opposing African Friend is a viable route for value. High drawn and front runner means we are drawn to e fields and bogart. E Fields beat Bogart last time at the course and is dropping a grade and placed last time in Cl3.

[vince bradbury]

Thought…
thirsk 2.45. Inglorious/Clear as a bell. Both good picks – preference for the latter due to collateral form with Pantera negra. Draw low (over 5f/6f) and front/prominent runner is normally a good angle at Thirsk. Also both in top ATR speed ratings.

[Author]

Posts