vince bradbury

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts
Chelmsford – low draws are a normal good pointer but last few weeks the lower draws have been winning exceptionally regular. TPS has a large number lowly drawn today.
A few that catch the eye are:
18:15 joes spirit Drawn 1 – by Swiss Spirit who has a great 50% SR on polytrack. 2-2 on track
18:45 starshell Drawn1 – by Sea the stars – has a great SR on all AW. Can forgive last run

Both look great bets

[vince bradbury]

trevor

well done – i followed

[vince bradbury]

tonight
Ch 7.10. Iballsticvin. Got two of my favourite sires against each other in this one…Fastnet rock (send up) and Rail Link (Iballisticvin). FR is the best sire on tapeta by far but is still pretty decent on poly but rail link is 5% better in SR for winners and just improves with every extra furlong. Also M Prescott is on the cold list right now; whilst G Moore is on the up.

Ch 7.40. Harba. I was bemused when I read recently that Frankel progeny are unprofitable on AW. Well they are unless you restrict it to Poly and 8f-14f. In which case it is 30% win and 60% place. Data sample still not massive but helps – Harba makes the criteria. Avoid Frankel at all costs on tapeta unless 8f-14f but even then it is still slightly unprofitable. Bumptious looks a threat though on run style, sire and last cfd run…could be under estimated by a few lbs.

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts

Quiet on here so far today….so here is a couple of thoughts…

B 3.50. Edward Lewis. I am struggling with the odds. Alpha Delphini been competitive in good races this year but has shown not to like soft and is by a sire that needs firm ground. Ornate is similar but sire does show preference for soft. Line of reason only ever wins in June. So what about E Lewis – ran v well last time on GS-S (but it was more like heavy in places) and the 2 runs before he was drawn out of the action; won over C&D at start of the year and has been going well otherwise. Looks over priced in the context of the opposition.
B 4.55. River Icon. Could be a blot to the fav. Fav could be anything but sire stats don’t lend to mud loving unlike River Icon. By Sixties Icon – should be ran on mud and mud only. Last run was just behind song maker and previously SM had almost beat Shutter Speed(OR109) on levels in soft. Again looks overpriced. Shame there isn’t another contender or we might be looking at a good odds place bet. However the reverse forecast looks ok at 2.0 & 6.1; but i do wonder over the fav regardless on the ground – as by starting time the final few furlongs will be glue.

[vince bradbury]

Thought
I mentioned Fastnet Rock progeny on tappet recently and the mentioned horse came 2nd at newcastle a few days ago by a neck at 4/1.
By Fastnet Rock – backing all Fastnet Rock runners on tapeta blind is exceptionally profitable. If you search the general SR on Aw it is 17%; but this is improved to 24% on tapeta and goes up to 28% in class 2-5. 28% SR win and 44% place in these grades.
Tonight at 8.15 – vanity queen is running in Cl5. By FR the three runs this year haven’t been great on looking; but the first on GF is a better race than seems and all those ahead of VQ have performed v well since. The last two runs were on GS or Sft – the progeny have a terrible record on turf with give and should only be backed on good ground.

Andrew Mount in GG tips has just posted the same on the website….beat me to it. If I find anything else I will post

PS – the TPS Selection – Rinaria – has a good progeny also and is proven on tapeta; I see it between the two

[vince bradbury]

Richard

I colour code the result and without much analysis I can see a good trend. Today was a below par day but was still in profit as I tend to cover bet – so Nellie pledge covered the 3 loses (1st rated) and all the 8pts was profit (as cover was 11pts).

You’ve got close with place pots lately so have been doing them at £1…..still up circa 35pts this week on irish.

[vince bradbury]

Richard

V Good point – backs up Larrys method as the first race is normally a maiden/novice race.

[vince bradbury]

Larry

method back on track…..I guess that good afternoon from you

[vince bradbury]

Pippin
we do – stan selects the MGT races and we post on members tips. I still do my thoughts – when i think there is an angle worth sharing. Larry, Carl < Neil, etc are al still posting.

Larry – agree – get back on the horse. Too consistent to not get going again but you made the right call to watch until stability returned.

[vince bradbury]

MGT compilation

diamond dougal – tied with P Lyla but TPS 1st Rated
redgrave
pacofiha
see of rome
express lady

[vince bradbury]

Thoughts

Looks similar to yesterday…so caution.

Quite fancy the list below for numerous reasons:
Red 3.25 Kynren. looks exc progressive
Chip 1.40 Goodnight girl. Form looks too far ahead of the opposition- has bumped into 2 Charlton hotshots so far
Yar 2.35 Simpson. Looks like one to follow for a while now
Yar 5.15. Magical Dreamer. looks like the only one of four to handle the conditions
New 5.40. Rasmee. By Fastnet Rock – backing all Fastnet Rock runners on tapeta blind is exceptionally profitable. If you search the general SR on Aw it is 17%; but this is improved to 24% on tapeta and goes up to 28% in class 2-5. 28% SR win and 44% place in these grades.

Ayr 9.10 Outfox – to place. Another really good sire on tapeta is foxwedge – 28% win and 37% place in class 2-5. Has a runner in 9.10 new. Outfox – best run was pen at wolverhampton in keeping with sire stat but is outsider of field. Maybe worth a small interest for a place (5/1) as Foxwedge stats improve with female only races to 29% win and 41% place. In the MGT Ive already suggested express lady due to trainer/rider/sire…just looks a bit stronger for the win.

[vince bradbury]

James

It is a few of us – you and everyone else is welcome to join in. We all post our selections for the races stated and one of us (usually Stan – but me today as he’s busy) collates the results for a final mediated opinion. We only started last week. We are all looking at ways to make it work…SAW, placed Acc, etc. Just trialling and we will see where it lands. Todays are:
Chep 2.45
Chep 3.15
Chep 3.5
Chep 4.2
New 9.1

I will collate at 1pm and post

Stan announces it on general with the races in the morning but we all post on members shared thread and the collated list is then posted there.

[vince bradbury]

My MGT

Chep 2.45 princess lyla
Chep 3.15 salt water bay
Chep 3.5 pacofilha
Chep 4.2 see of rome
New 9.1 express lady – Trainer & jockey great SR at course. Other horses don’t have good tapeta sire stats for tapeta- most are dire.

[vince bradbury]

Stan

Will do – will post 1pm

[vince bradbury]

definitely redama as rock n rolla is NR

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