Tom

[Tom]

Carl I place a pre match double chance bet of Ars or BM – currently at 1/5 odds where £50 will return £60. When match starts I then place a £50 draw bet which currently would return £230! I usually find that the draw odds fall as soon as the match starts but even so can produce a good result! The min return will be £10 profit. If you leave the in-play bet until there is a score the draw odds should increase but I prefer to bet asap after kick-off.

[Tom]

Over/Under 2.5 goals system rec’d today courtesy of Moses – for you number crunchers!

Introduction

This is a very simple and profitable strategy, which can be applied successfully to leagues around the world and works very well due to simple, good mathematics.

The Leagues I have been successfully implementing this system for 4 seasons and some leagues have proven themselves to be far more profitable for this particular strategy, these are listed below and for this strategy I call them Grade A leagues:

 Argentina Primera
 Brazil Serie A
 Brazil Serie B
 France Ligue 1
 Italy Serie A
 Spain Segunda Division
 USA MLS

That is not to say however, that I do not trade other leagues with this strategy, I certainly do and they are all profitable, but for this particular strategy, here are my Grade B leagues.

 England Premier League
 England Championship
 Holland Eredivisie
 Spanish Primera Division

You can try this method in other leagues and you may find success, but the leagues above are the ones I have found to work best

Betting Exchange Ticks

Part of the filter is identifying the number of ticks between back and lay odds, so it is important that you understand what ticks are and how they work on the betting exchanges.

A tick is the difference between the two closest prices on the betting exchange. The tick size does vary dependent on price, and the size is smaller the lower the odds. For example a tick is 0.01 when the odds are 2.00 or lower, so if the price increases from 1.99, the next price point is 2.00.

However, the if the price increases again, then the next price is 2.02, a rise of 0.02. After 3.00 the price only increases by increments of 0.05. That’s all you need to remember for now

Liquidity

For this strategy, the specific market we are looking to trade in a particular match should have at least £1,000 of matched bets prior to kick-off; this is also referred to as liquidity.

To find the liquidity, select the match and open the appropriate market

The Strategy

The market we are focusing on is the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market. So after choosing a Grade A or Grade B league, you now have to find a match with the correct odds for us to trade with.

Look at the Over/Unders 2.5 Goals market and check that the liquidity is more than £1,000. The Overs/Unders markets for some leagues can take more time to form, so it is always worth checking as close to kick-off as possible.

Whilst it is common for England Premier League matches to have thousands match more than 24 hours before kick-off, Argentinian and Brazilian games often see money come into the market closer to kick-off.

If the liquidity is over £1,000, then make sure that the back odds for Under 2.5 Goals are and lay odds for are within 4 ticks.

If the odds for backing Under 2.5 Goals are 1.79 or lower, then it is a no-play
If the odds for backing Under 2.5 Goals are 4.42 or higher, then it is a no-play

The Methodology

This strategy is steeped in simple, yet fundamentally sound mathematics.

For the leagues which I use this system on – 12.99% of games have goals scored in the first 15 minutes.

The average odds which I use are to back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.12

So we shall now work this through and for the stake of simplicity I will use £100 initial stakes per bet.

Having selected a match per my filters outlined in The Strategy chapter above, I backed Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 2.12. Remember, this is not a straight bet; we are looking to trade out after 15 minutes or at the FIRST goal being scored.

On 15 minutes, if there have been no goals, the odds to Lay Under 2.5 Goals will be around 1.70 allowing me to trade out for a £24.70 profit no matter what happens in the rest of the match

If a goal is scored before 15 minutes, then the odds to Lay Under 2.5 Goals will be around 3.30 allowing me to trade out for a total loss of £35.75

On average we will make 20% profit on every winning game. On average we will lose around 40% of our stake on every loss.

Only 12.99% of games have a goal in the first 15 minutes and this is made up from the following leagues:

Grade A Leagues

 Argentina Primera – 11.8%
 Brazil Serie A – 15.8%
 Brazil Serie B – 13.7%
 France Ligue 1 – 12.4%
 Italy Serie A – 11.3%
 Spain Segunda Division – 13.2%
 USA MLS – 13.6%

Grade B Leagues

 England Premier League – 12.8%
 England Championship – 11.4%
 Holland Eredivisie – 13.3%
 Spanish Primera Division – 13.6%

Looking at the raw stats of the strategy, shows that for on average we will win 87% of our trades.

That’s 87 wins for every 100 games played

87 wins x £20 = £1,740 Profit

That means we also lose around 13% of our trades (as 13% of games have a goal in the first 15 minutes)

13 losses x £40 = £520 Loss

So for every 100 trades, a profit of around £1,220 is achievable which is a Return On Investment of 11%, far better than you can achieve in a savings account!

Results may vary slightly but either way it is a simple cash builder. As you get used to using the system, you may want to add your own filters into the process to further eliminate games with a high probability of a goal being scored in 15 minutes.

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