Dean Harris

[Dean Harris]

Keith, check out my post in the General Chat topic too. This will help with calculating the staking.

Hi Neil, haven’t got anything yet mate.

[Dean Harris]

Hi Chris, no problem. I also do it manually so it’s pretty easy to explain – this will help Keith too.

Firstly decide on a percentage of the bank to use as a profit target – I use 1/500 so if I have a £500 bank, my first profit target is £1.
Then use this calculation to work out the bet depending on the selection and odds –

£1 (profit target) x1.06 (to cover commissions) = £1.06. Then divide this by the (odds-1) – for example, if the odds are 1.84 remove the 1 and divide by 0.84 (if the odds were 2.14 then you’d divide by 1.14).
So £1.06 divided by example 0.84 = £1.26 – this will be your stake on the first race.
If it wins, job done. Stop for the day.
If it loses, you need to add your profit target (£1) to the losing stake (£1.26) and re-do the calculation (£1 + £1.26 = £2.26 x1.06 = £2.40) divide £2.40 by the (odds-1) available for the qualifying selection to get the next stake.
Always stop at a winner but if there is a run of losers, keep adding the losing stakes to the profit target and re-do the calculation each time.

If the stake is below the minimum requirement of £2, which if using my 1/500 starting bank then it will be, there is a way to apply a lower amount.
Click on the BACK (blue) odds for the qualifying selection. Change the odds to 1000 and enter 2 as the stake. Click to bet.
This will be unmatched. You then click on the 2 in the stake box to ADD your stake – so if 1.26 is the starting stake, you’d change 2 to 3.26 in the stake box. Click update bet.
You will now end up with 2 unmatched bets – cancel the £2 bet and amend the odds of the 1.26 bet to the odds you have used to calculate this stake (in this case 1.84 if it’s still available). Click update and this will hopefully make the bet.
The odds are volatile so change about quickly. When calculating your stake, try to aim for odds in a region of your calculation if you can’t get the exact same ones. Ideally the odds go up so you win more than your profit target but use the same stake.

[Dean Harris]

Wow, I must admit I wasn’t expecting such a response to my testing request.
Here are my testers now –

Carl
Elisabeth
Phil Bridger
George Mackay
Jeff
Chris Baker

Thanks for your emails/replies. I’ll send the strategies out shortly and then you can have a play about.

[Dean Harris]

Hi Pippin, please see my reply. Neil was right with selecting Alcala to beat Such a Legend, but due to the late withdrawal of Such a Legend, AvB became a choice between 1st and 2nd rated. In this case, Alcala won the bet despite the change in selection, but on other occasions my strategy is to choose the 1st rated over the 2nd rated – maybe this should be 2nd over 1st instead???

Hi Keith, welcome to the group and to the AvB discussion. The strategy is based on loss recovery.
At some point before the racing starts, either myself, Carl or Neil will provide a list of the qualifying races/selections. Using this list, we then focus a profit target bet on the selection as named to beat the other.
Let us know if you would like to know the calculations to use.

[Dean Harris]

Well done Neil.
However I noticed something on the first AvB race that I had never seen before – not only did the number of runners reduce from 5 to 2, but this affected the AvB because both remaining runners were 1st and 2nd rated and these became the AvB selections, with the original being 2nd rated and the change in selection becoming the 1st rated.
Now here is the dilemma – if we are betting close to the off and the AvB selections have changed, do we stick with the original (if not 1st rated) or, possibly as in this case, go to the 1st rated?
Looking at the race, we could see that the 2nd rated won and this was the original selection – so is it best to stick to the original selection because of this?
What if the 1st rated went onto win?
The 2nd race didn’t win so we’d now be onto the 3rd.

Any input on this would be appreciated as it will help in future.

I am also noticing that when going through the cards, more often than not, the higher odds AvB selection often beats the lower odds selection (this is without using the TPS or DM selections only).
Therefore I am wondering if it’s possible to loss recovery on the first 5 races where the unfancied of the 2 runners is at odds between 2 and 2.5 (it’ll definitely help with the staking because it avoids the odds on prices for the loss recovery).

[Dean Harris]

I’ve just come up with an idea. The best way to market something when it’s ready is if it’s been proven, so why don’t I use you guys as guinea pigs??? Sorry I meant Beta Testers…haha
Carl, Elisabeth, please send me an email to deanharris69@hotmail.com and I’ll reply with the strategy.
I’ll take THREE more people to try it out for free – first come first served.

[Dean Harris]

Thanks Carl.
I haven’t put anything into a format yet, but I’ve been playing about with roulette just now and it still seems to work. As I’m just making sure it works I use small 10p bets on Betfair and just made 23pts (£2.30). I know it’s not much but I am looking to use it as a bank builder and increase the stakes when reaching a certain new level each time.
I’ll get something put together as soon as I can and then figure out how to market it. The good thing is what I do can be used anywhere in the world so it could be massive – and I have 3 possible winning strategies that can be used individually or all together (although it’s quite mindblowing when using all 3).
I’ll keep you posted.

[Dean Harris]

Thanks Pippin. I’m glad you’re using the AvB strategy too.
I’ve been on here a long time now, but only recently have I come up with something worth adding to the forum, courtesy of Carl’s double match list.
I did put up a strategy that Dave R has helped improve and been successful with, but this all changed for me when Sporting Life made updates to their site.

My other strategies are non-ratings based so I will be looking to put them out for sale in the future once I know for certain they are credible, so as you can imagine I can’t give too much away at the moment.
However I can tell you that one is place laying and the other is a roulette strategy.

[Dean Harris]

Thanks for posting the AvB/DM list for me Neil M. That’s appreciated as I put a lot of time into my normal betting practices before going through the list.

To everyone: if you are losing from the AvB/DM selections, then there is something wrong. I am still 100% from these since Carl and I first collaborated on this strategy.
I read some negative comments over the weekend about this, which I was none too pleased about.
There are 4 aspects to successful betting – strategy, patience, discipline and, MOST importantly, money management.
My profit target for this strategy is based on 1/500th of my bank. My winning strategy is to stop at the first winner. More often than not, it has won on the 1st or 2nd, but like Friday it may continue to number 4.
I have been listing the first 5 selections where I believe at least ONE will be a winner – I have not been disappointed so far. I then add any others that I find for that day, barring the evening races as that’s my downtime.
And because I personally have a limit of 5, I go for a small percentage of my bank to cover those 5 in the worst case scenario.
1/500th isn’t going to make me rich very quickly but it will make me wealthy in the long term – alongside my own personal strategies which are also hitting 100% return of my profit target each day.
Unless you just want to bet for fun, use these ratings and the strategies provided as a business. I’m having fun and making money from it at the same time so it is possible to get both out of it.

[Dean Harris]

Thanks for answering Michael’s question Carl. I had to go and do a Tesco’s run for the weekend so have only just seen it.
Michael Mortlock, I hoped Carl’s answer helped explain it.
With regards to staking, using loss recovery/stop at a winner (SAW), I calculate the stake based on the profit target I want.
This is the calculation – 1pt x 1.06 (to cover commission) = 1.06pts then divide this by the available odds minus 1 (so if the odds show as 2, minus 1 = 1 so divide 1.06pts by 1).
Sample using £10 per point and odds of say 1.86 – £10 x 1.06 = £10.60 divide by 0.86 = £12.33 – this will be the stake on the 1st race.
If it wins, stop.
If it loses, add your losing stake to your PT and do the same calculation – £10 + £12.33 = £22.33 x 1.06 = £23.67 divide by (odds-1) for the next stake.
If it wins, stop.
If it loses, add both losing stakes to the PT and re-do the calculation again – and I hope you get the gist from here.

Carl, I won’t be able to post an AvB list tomorrow as I’m out all day. The honour is yours buddy. I’ll be back on Monday.

[Dean Harris]

There it is – AvBOOOMMMM!!! 4th attempt but profit made (keeping with the 1 in 4)

[Dean Harris]

Who wants to make a profit today? 8 qualifying races so far, there should be at least 2 winners.
Usual business – SAW or no more than 2 (if considering 1 in 4 wins).

1. Eps 14.00 Zap to beat Cardsharp
2. MRsn 14.15 Rainy City to beat Ballinure (1st vs 2nd rated – 3 horse race)
3. Catt 14.25 Retrieve to beat Viewpoint (1st vs 2nd rated – 4 horse race)
4. MRsn 14.50 Chestnut Ben to beat Washed Ashore
5. Catt 15.00 Berryessa to beat Glyder
6. Catt 15.35 Lester Kris to beat Beach Break (what Matt is going on)
7. MRsn 16.00 Crown Hill to beat Brian Boranha
8. Eps 17.15 True Valour to beat Seven Heavens

[Dean Harris]

Thanks Arthur. My pleasure.

[Dean Harris]

AvBOOOMMM!!! Get in, first race job done again.

[Dean Harris]

AvB/DM list (sorry it’s later than usual) –
There are only 6 so definitely stop at 1.
1. Wolv 14.20 World Power to beat Arnarson
2. Ham 15.30 Gaelic Tiger to beat Falcon’s Fire
3. Wolv 16.20 Lord Murphy to beat Muthraab Aldaar
4. Ham 16.30 Amy Blair to beat Archipeligo
5. Ham 17.00 Cliff Bay to beat Archi’s Affaire
6. Wolv 17.20 Caledonia Laird to beat Ettie Hart

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