Dean Harris

[Dean Harris]

Thanks for the help Jacqueline. It’s like even the tabloids don’t want anyone to profit from the racing now!!!
I have managed to find a manually long-winded but effective way to work it using RP and SL together.

Here are my selections (hoping for better than the last 2 days, but I don’t think Doris is helping) –
Sedg 14.45 Whitsundays
Sedg 15.20 Louis’ Vac Pouch & Mr Clarkson (dutch or RF)
Sedg 15.55 Chakisto
Chelm 16.05 Basheer (double stake)
Wolv 18.25 Solajan (double stake)
Wolv 19.30 Retrieve
Wolv 20.00 Amazement (double stake)

[Dean Harris]

Hi Jacqueline,
Oh I’ve hunted and they’ve left almost everything out.
I use them for the naps table (luckily this comes from RP anyway).
I use them for all the horse data – most of it is still there but they don’t note any extra weight or credits from previous runs (ie. no D for distance, or CD for course/distance, etc.)
I have also been using the jockey/trainer stats for each race at each meeting – no link to those anymore.
Finally, there isn’t a link to profile search or results archive anymore.

And already their site for the horse racing has gone down…that’s karma!!!

I’ve sent them an email – not happy!!!

[Dean Harris]

Got a problem. SportingLife have ruined their site and now I can’t find the data I use to provide selections.
Have subscribed to RP but not sure they provide the same – stats are general and not per meeting.
May have to go back to the drawing board – thanks SportingLife, you dumba***s

[Dean Harris]

Hi Carl, in response to your reply, firstly you’re definitely not thick 🙂
Secondly I was referring to a previous post I put on regarding finding 2 bets from as few outcomes as possible (very likely 3 – eg. home win, draw, away win).
As long as I can find 4 very strong contenders at evens or above then I can put them into 16 four folds to cover every possibility from those 2 out of 3 outcomes and get a winning four fold – the only draw back would be if the 3rd outcome were to happen in any match.

For example, the list I put up yesterday for 4 matches in the Europa league. Each match will have 2/3 goals or 4+ (over 3) – the 3rd option being 1 or less (under 2).
I found these 4 matches have a good chance of having 2 or more goals and the odds for such are evens or above for the most likely outcome.

I then list these teams in a spreadsheet that allows me to formulate their position in each four fold bet.
So bet 1 is like this –
Match 1 – 2/3 goals
Match 2 – 2/3 goals
Match 3 – 2/3 goals
Match 4 – 2/3 goals

Bet 2 is like this –
Match 1 – 2/3 goals
Match 2 – 2/3 goals
Match 3 – 2/3 goals
Match 4 – 4+ goals

And it goes on until there are 16 different four folds covering 2/3 goals and 4+ goals. I hope this makes more sense.
If anyone wants to see the full 16 four fold chart, let me know and I’ll post it somehow.

[Dean Harris]

I’m still looking at strategies to fit my four-fold 2 out of 3 outcomes. The last try didn’t come anywhere near (but that was covering 2 outcomes from 6 so a bit tougher to get).
Anyway, I looked at Europa league results last week at games going above 2 goals and where a team either needs more goals for security or the losing team needs goals to qualify.
Then look at the 2 or 3 goals & over 3 goals odds. These are the ones that came out with evens or above –
Genk vs Astra
Lyon vs AZ
Zenit vs Anderlecht
Roma vs Villareal

16 four-folds covering 2/3 goals & 4+ – as long as 2 goals are scored in each game, quids in – and even if the lowest odds results come in (Evs, 2.10, 2.05, Evs) then this will just about cover the stake and add a little profit.
I will update with results on Friday.

[Dean Harris]

A disappointing blank for me yesterday – damn that rolling pin Robert…haha
A 9pt loss on the day (and I had made a mistake with one of the double stake selections – should only have qualified once – lesson learnt).

Here are today’s selections (possible super yankee on 1st rated only???) –

Donc 14.10 Mister Whitaker
Ling 14.55 Remember the Man (1st)
Lud 15.05 Westend Story
Ling 16.30 Dangerous Ends (double stake) (1st)
Kemp 18.15 Alabaster (double stake) (1st) & Sun or Shade (double stake) – dutch or RF this race
Kemp 18.45 Darebin (1st) & Take Two – dutch or RF this race
Kemp 19.45 Sandro Botticelli (1st)

Let’s hope for better than yesterday.

[Dean Harris]

Hi Jacqueline, I’ve just looked up the footy results & hope I talked you out of your acca as only 1 selection made it past 1.5 goals (2 were 1-0 & the other 2 postponed).
Annoyingly one of the postponements was Livingston, who were my first rolling acca selection.
I have come up with a selection process that I will trial for a bit before explaining.
Today’s selection is Valencia/Real Madrid to go over 1.5 goals.
As for my BTTS/result selections, that was a no-go too. 1 winner, 2 draws & my boys Brentford beating Sheff Wed (shock result but good for us).
Back to the drawing board for footy ideas.

[Dean Harris]

Hi Elisabeth, the Pick 7 is kind of a lottery but with better chances of winning.
I started a TPS league for anyone who wants to join – it’s just a bit of fun & we can see who does well.
The code to join this group is 847PLTE.
I went with the 1st rated on Saturday & had 1 winner, 5 placed & unplaced.
The ratings are a good place to start for selections. Who knows maybe one day Matt will pick the right ones for us to win on this.

[Dean Harris]

Robert, is your holy grail just a bigger pin?…haha

Jacqueline, good afternoon, I’ve had a look at your acca selections. They all show above 80% for both home and away teams that go over 1.5 on adamchoi.co.uk
However, looking at Reading’s past 8 matches, they’ve had 4 at 1 or less goals. This means they are getting away with low scoring results. They are playing a similar team in terms of league position and points. It will be a tight match.
Newport have had 3 of their last 8 at 0-0, Morecambe had 3 games at 1 or less goals. Morecambe are on better form but neither team are scoring highly.
All the other games look promising but anything can happen in football. The low odds don’t mean certainty.
As for a staking plan, I would go with a rolling acca and just bet on 1 strong selection per day building the stake up (after 3 or 4 selections, remove your original stake and start over with the winnings – think of the long haul).
I would be tempted to start with the Livingston match.
If you go with acca edge on all 5, you get your stake back on 1 loss but lose it on 2 or more. If you get your stake back, then you just start again with another 5 matches but if you lose your stake then play to win your stake back, the recovery requires the same amount of risk. How far can you go to try and win your stake back each time and profit in the end? How easy is it going to be to find 5 strong matches each time?

This is just my opinion so please go with your own confidence. I don’t want to put you off, I want you to win.

[Dean Harris]

Have posted my selections in members tips and 3 of them compete against your goliath/5 fold/4 fold selections, sorry.

[Dean Harris]

Morning all, here are my selections for today –

TPS Rated
Sthl 14.10 Log Off
Sthl 14.40 Elegantly Bound (double stake)
Weth 15.30 Lightening Rod (dutch with Groomed)
Sthl 15.40 Lady Nayef
Taun 15.50 Zanstra (double stake)

Non-TPS Rated
Weth 15.30 Groomed (dutch with Lightening Rod)
Sthl 16.40 Sennockian Song

[Dean Harris]

Gents, when you went looking on google for Kerry Lee tips I think you misspelled Kerry Lee tinder…haha

In response to my own question about four-folds & looking at 2 from 3 outcomes, I came up with an idea about BTTS yes/no & result.
If it’s possible to find a most likely winning team (i.e. A team that is a lot better than their opponent & should win) then the odds of the BTTS yes/no & result will be bigger. There are obviously 6 possibilities but with good enough teams then the results should go in our favour.
So this is what I found for tomorrow (21st) to monitor –

Sheff Wed – yes 3.75 & no 3.2
Millwall – yes 3.4 & no 2.3
Morecambe – yes 6.5 & no 5.5
Strasbourg – yes 4.5 & no 2.62

No betting, just want to see what happens.

[Dean Harris]

Just the 1 winner from my 5 selections today (it was a double stake winner too).
A loss of 2.5pts on those 5 selections or a profit of 0.5pts if just going with the double stakers.

I’ve been working on a possible non-rated selection process based on trainers and jockeys today. I know it goes against the grain of this site, but if it produces a profit, anything helps right?
Today it produced 7 selections resulting in 11pts profit. Tomorrow I will add these to my list – so there will a rated list and a non-rated list.

I just want to live up to my ‘winner finding machine’ nickname 🙂

[Dean Harris]

Can anyone help me with this? Whether it be football, horses, dogs, anything that has a good chance of getting 1 out of 2 from 3 outcomes at evens or above.
For example, a football match has 3 outcomes – home win, draw, away win. If all 3 are above evens, then there is a possibility to cover 2 and profit. Imagine putting the right 1 of those 2 in a four-fold where within 16 chances, at least 1 four-fold is correct.
If that doesn’t make sense, let me explain a bit further.
I have a ‘table’ in excel that allows a 1st choice and a 2nd choice based on the odds. Once all is complete, there are 4 1st choices and 4 2nd choices. The table then puts these choices into a list of 16 four-folds – these are then placed with a bookie and, as long as a 1st choice or 2nd choice is a winner, then there is a winning four-fold (and at evens or above, the returns will exceed the 16pt outlay).
My dilemma is – the strategy. I’ve tried football (win & draw) and golf (3-balls) but maybe I don’t have the right strategy or research tools.
So my question – does anybody have any ideas how to put together a good strategy covering 2 from 3 possible outcomes at evens or above please?

Answers on a post(card) please.

[Dean Harris]

Hi Robert, do you have a method to your selection process on the dogs?
Do you follow speed, past form, previous finishes, etc?

Thanks
Dean

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