Dean Harris

[Dean Harris]

I think I have found the angle I need to profit from AvB market.
Look at AvB market in any race for the 2 selections Betfair have chosen.
Look at Racing Post and the qualifying selection is the one with highest TS and RPR – if each selection has 1 each, then move onto next race and do the same. Selection MUST be higher for BOTH TS and RPR.

Here is the tricky part – staking plan is loss recovery.
Obtain a profit target. First bet is stake required for PT. If wins, reset to PT stake on next bet. If it loses, work out the next stake to gain PT and previous lost stake. Continue until a winner is chosen, then reset.
Only just found this today so not sure of winning or losing runs, but just placed 2 bets, lost first (odds of 1.5) then winning stake and profit target on second (at odds of just above evens).

[Dean Harris]

Still looking at AvB angles as my original test didn’t work so have looked at Racing Post stats – TS and RPR.
So far, it looks promising but need to monitor more.

Carl 16.55 Wicklow Lad to beat Wind of Hope???

Carl, is your full name Carlisle by any chance?…haha

[Dean Harris]

Just looking at a new angle with the jockey/trainer stats I use and seeing if it can predict the AvB market. 50% chance of finding the winner from 2 and it doesn’t even have to win the race.
Not much liquidity but for a couple of ££ at a time, could be something.

Winc 16.05 Scrumpy Boy to beat King Killer – SB 4th, KK 5th – won

Carl 16.20 Wazowski to beat Charmant??? Let’s see what happens.

[Dean Harris]

Don’t fancy coming down to Gloucestershire then Carl?…haha

Thanks Jacqui. If I can help everyone else with their life sentences, then at least I am not alone…haha

[Dean Harris]

OK, why wasn’t Hammer Gun 1st rated anywhere? – I’m surprised no one had that NAILED down… haha

[Dean Harris]

Carl, I’ll keep posting as long as I have something that works. No intention to stop unless that 330pts goes down the pan… which I hope it doesn’t.

[Dean Harris]

Thanks Carl.
Just remembered your question from yesterday – I only record data based on the win results, can’t be (_,_)’d with working out place odds/returns. Plus sometimes the odds are too low to risk the stake and if the selections don’t win, it seems they can’t be (_,_)’d to get in the places either…haha

[Dean Harris]

It’s been a long morning already!!!
A good return from yesterday with 4.5pts added to the bank (now at 330.41pts)
It’s busy today –

Sthl 14.10 Major Tom
Carl 14.35 La Dama De Hierro (unrated, but top jockey)
Carl 15.10 Largy Bull (double stake) & Thomas Do (unrated, but top trainer) (half stake)
Sthl 15.20 Bounty Pursuit – also selected by Richard/Carl
Carl 15.45 Dartford Warbler (unrated, but top trainer)
Sthl 15.55 Sir Billy Wright & Lady Nayef (split stakes)
Sthl 16.30 Secret Salvage
Winc 16.40 Tikkapick
Sthl 17.05 Pick of Any – also selected by Richard/Carl
Winc 17.10 Dark Invader
Newc 17.45 Innoko & Embankment (unrated, but top jockey) (split stakes)
Newc 18.15 Rutherford
Newc 19.15 Mandrell (double stakes) – also selected by Richard/Carl
Newc 19.45 Via Via
Newc 20.15 Orlando Rogue (double stakes)

For those of you who do matched betting, NetBet sent out a code yesterday for 50% deposit increase up to £25 (deposit £50 using code 50UKUCL & rollover once to receive bonus. Ideally back a losing horse and lay it off on Betfair at similar odds. If selection wins, it needs to be rolled over 6 times before withdrawing so anything around odds of 4-6 with 2 or 3 lower in the markets would be best for initial £50 bet, then do the same with the bonus but look for something at odds of 10 or above for better returns after commission).

[Dean Harris]

Thanks Jacqui. Place – BOOM – BOOM!!! So far….
Robins Legend for a nice B Hughes double???
Could do with the double stakers coming in too.

[Dean Harris]

Let’s see if Richard can help bring home some bacon today. Thanks for your selections Richard.

Ling 14.30 Fairway to Heaven (double stake)
Ling 15.30 Solajan
Catt 15.50 Sky Full of Stars (unrated, top jockey selection)
Catt 16.20 Robins Legend (unrated, top jockey selection)
Ling 16.30 Make Music (double stake)
Kemp 17.45 Our Channel (double stake)

[Dean Harris]

I agree with Larry. I wouldn’t trust myself either… can just about get something together using his ratings… I wouldn’t have a clue how to make my own selections.
Gonna have a go with Richard’s today.

[Dean Harris]

Sorry to hear Matt has family issues. No selections today.
He needs a back up for his process – I’d happily volunteer 🙂

[Dean Harris]

Hi Carl, in response to your earlier question about only doing double stake selections, this is everyone’s choice. The result (after yesterday) is 187.52pts but with all the singles included, I am currently showing a 325.91pts profit. It helps having the singles option on days where there are no doubles, like today.
I will admit it’s still a work in progress but should be profitable long term.

Hi Elisabeth, I am recording a single bet as 1pt and doubles to 2pts for the double stakes. It depends how you split your bank – ie. I like to work with a 1/100 split, so if I have a bank of 100pts, 1pt is 1% of that. As the bank increases, so does my stake.

Here are the selections for today –
Sthl 14.30 Deep Resolve
Sthl 15.00 Eurato
Newc 15.10 Catching Shadows
Newc 15.40 Martiloo (unrated, but top jockey riding)
Newc 16.10 Our Delboy (unrated, but top trainer entry)
Exe 16.20 Lovely Bubbly

I was thinking of piling all top jockey selections at each course into a singles and doubles multiplier. Worth looking at because they sometimes come away from the meetings with at least 1 win each.
Exeter – Richard Johnson (Waterloo Warrior, Black Tulip, Boss in Boots, Bramble Brook)
Newcastle – Brian Hughes (Plus Jamais, Catching Shadows, Martiloo, Midnite Grace, Uluroo)
Southwell – Adam Kirby (King Crimson, Eurato, London, Tasaaboq)

Something else I am looking at today is the Racing Post top bets rated by Matt –
Newc 15.10 Oishin

[Dean Harris]

One for the Cheltenham & matched betting fans –
Coral are doing a bet £25 get £10 in free bets the next day (split by £5 online & £5 in shop though).
They are also doing money back if your horse falls (up to £25) on bets made after 6pm the night before.
Don’t forget to opt in.

[Dean Harris]

Hey Stan, I was watching the race unfold on the exchange but couldn’t cash out because of a late withdrawal. So annoying when they do that.
So 0 from 5 again today. Sorry.

Also a nightmare with the footy. Bloody youngsters in Holland – top vs bottom and still 0-0 – and annoyingly one of the other matches was postponed.

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