Successful Strategies

[Richard Levett]

The back-to-lay strategy is a popular approach in sports trading, particularly on betting exchanges like Betfair. It involves placing a back bet (betting on an outcome to happen) at higher odds and then placing a lay bet (betting on the same outcome not to happen) at lower odds, with the goal of locking in a profit regardless of the final result.

Here’s a breakdown of how it works:

How Back-to-Lay Works

Back Bet:
You identify a selection (e.g., a horse or team) where you expect the odds to drop.
Place a back bet at the current odds.

Odds Drop:
If the selection performs well or market sentiment changes, the odds on that selection will decrease.

Lay Bet:
Once the odds drop, place a lay bet at the lower odds.

Profit Calculation

By laying at lower odds than your original back bet, you can secure a profit.
Example:

You back a horse at 10.0 odds with £10:
Potential profit (if the horse wins): £90 (£100 return – £10 stake).

Odds drop to 6.0 after strong market support or pre-race buzz.

You lay the same horse at 6.0 for £16.67:
Liability: £83.33 (6.0 odds x £16.67 lay stake – £16.67 lay stake).
If the horse wins:
Back bet wins: £90 profit.
Lay bet loses: £83.33 liability.
Net profit: £6.67.
If the horse loses:
Back bet loses: £10 stake.
Lay bet wins: £16.67 lay stake.
Net profit: £6.67.

This ensures a guaranteed profit of £6.67 no matter the outcome.
Key Factors for Success

Market Knowledge: Identify selections whose odds are likely to drop (e.g., horses with strong form, a team expected to start strongly, or pre-match rumours).
Timing: The earlier you spot an opportunity, the more room for odds to decrease.
Liquidity: Ensure the market has sufficient liquidity for both back and lay bets.
Patience and Discipline: Wait for favourable odds and avoid chasing losses.

Advantages

Low-risk: You can lock in profit before the event finishes.
Versatility: Can be applied to various sports and markets, including football, horse racing, and cricket.

Risks to Consider

Odds Might Not Drop: If odds drift higher instead of falling, you may face a loss or require a larger lay stake to break even.
Market Volatility: Fast-moving markets can make it harder to secure your desired odds.
Mistakes in Calculations: Ensure accurate calculations to avoid losses due to mismatched stakes.

This strategy is particularly appealing for those seeking steady, low-risk profits rather than relying purely on outcomes.

[jacqueline mclean]

mondays potential plays

430 bri…2*+4
445 kemp…2+1
450 wor…12*+2*
515 kemp…4*+1
755 wol…4+1

[jacqueline mclean]

stats to date

mar 22 – apr 2…+32.83
apr 4 – apr 30…-44.77
may 2 – may 28…+41.16
may 30 -july 2…+13.92
july 4 -july 30…+47.90
aug 1- today…+70.76

FROM SEPT 2ND

2nd… +11.08
3rd… +14
4th… no betting
5th… -2.40
6th… +7.73
7th… 4.61
8th… +4.29
9th… – .15
10th… +7.80
11th… -1.29

p/l 2nd to 11th PLUS 36.45PT

[jacqueline mclean]

SUNDAYS RESULTS…updated stats to follow

11 240 bat…MINUS 1
9+3 315 bat…MINUS 2
7+5 325 che…MINUS 1
1+2 335 ff…PLUS 5.71
7+4 400 ch…MINUS 2
4+3 410 ff…MINUS 1

P/L…-1.29PT

[jacqueline mclean]

sundays potential plays

11 240 bat
9+3 315 bat
7+5 325 che
1+2 335 ff
7+4 400 ch
4+3 410 ff

[jacqueline mclean]

thats super roger…i must look into that as life would be much easier…i have friends who use bots and other software on the exchange…one day i hope to rise to this level of technology

[Roger]

Thanks Jacqueline. I use excel to monitor and fire my bets into Betfair via gruss betting assistant, the betting criteria being set in excel and I have an upper limit of 51 set. For the few we get at these prices I will probably leave it at that for now. Understand now why we had the discrepancy.

[jacqueline mclean]

hi dave

glad you made a profit but these are not my tips…they are richards and matts ratings in selected races…with a lot of help from roger it has been ticking over nicely

fingers crossed for more of that

[David Wasley]

Hi Jacqueline

Missed your first few tips but picked them up at 4.40pm onwards. You picked 6 winners in the 11 races left. I was betting very tiny amounts but still made £25 profit!

Thank you!

Dave

[jacqueline mclean]

hi roger

i dont back anything over 25 bfsp as have not recorded any winner over that…no doubt it will happen as it nearly did today

also i will avoid races with 25 or more runners

don’t want to add to many filters though as you can miss some nie winners with too many filters

[Roger]

Hi Jacqueline,

You recorded 14:35 Doncaster – Humidor / Pipers Note…MINUS 1.

Am I missing a filter somewhere as I placed bsp’s on both Humidor and Pipers Note and recorded a MINUS 2.

[jacqueline mclean]

SATURDAYS RESULTS

14:15 Chester – Sir Billy Wright / Alejandro…MINUS 1
14:35 Doncaster – Humidor / Pipers Note…MINUS 1
15:25 Chester – Tahoo / Harome…MINUS 2
15:55 Chester – Rainbow Rebel / De Veer Cliffs…MINUS 1
16:20 Doncaster – Harbour Master / Khalida…PLUS 3.20
16:25 Bath – Rosie Royale / Ballyfarsoon…PLUS 9.6…STOP BETTING PLUS 7.80 PT ON THE DAY THANX RICHARD AND ROGER
16:30 Chester – Masamah / Come on Dave
16:40 Lingfield – He’s No Saint / King of Spin
16:45 Musselburgh – Soundstrings / Lincoln Rocks
16:50 Doncaster – Banksea / Up in Lights
16:55 Bath – Miss Minuty / British Embassy
17:00 Chester – Hereawl / Blakeney Point
17:15 Lingfield – Inclination / Pretty Bubbles
17:25 Doncaster – Renfrew Street / Moorside
17:55 Musselburgh – Mujaamil / Planetaria
18:00 Doncaster – Gold Trail / Stars over the Sea
18:05 Bath – Cersei / Pine Ridge
18:30 Musselburgh – Introductory / Novalina

[jacqueline mclean]

THANX ROGER

14:15 Chester – Sir Billy Wright / Alejandro
14:35 Doncaster – Humidor / Pipers Note
15:25 Chester – Tahoo / Harome
15:55 Chester – Rainbow Rebel / De Veer Cliffs
16:20 Doncaster – Harbour Master / Khalida
16:25 Bath – Rosie Royale / Ballyfarsoon
16:30 Chester – Masamah / Come on Dave
16:40 Lingfield – He’s No Saint / King of Spin
16:45 Musselburgh – Soundstrings / Lincoln Rocks
16:50 Doncaster – Banksea / Up in Lights
16:55 Bath – Miss Minuty / British Embassy
17:00 Chester – Hereawl / Blakeney Point
17:15 Lingfield – Inclination / Pretty Bubbles
17:25 Doncaster – Renfrew Street / Moorside
17:55 Musselburgh – Mujaamil / Planetaria
18:00 Doncaster – Gold Trail / Stars over the Sea
18:05 Bath – Cersei / Pine Ridge
18:30 Musselburgh – Introductory / Novalina

[jacqueline mclean]

FRIDAYS RESULTS

14:40 Chester – Tawny Port / Cullingworth…minus 2
15:05 Doncaster – Wall of Fire / Fabricate…minus 1
15:15 Chester – Viscount Barfield / Gabriel the Tiger…minus 1
15:30 Sandown – Haggie / Shawaahid…minus 1
15:50 Chester – Playful sound / Cote d’Azur…minus 1
16:05 Sandown – Aristocratic / Little Miss Kodi…minus 1
16:40 Sandown – Cloudberry / Postbag…minus 1
17:00 Chester – Chocala / Gabriel King…minus 1
17:15 Sandown – Sennockian / Pure Fantasy…plus 10.9…THIS ONE HIT 200 IN RUNNING…yes i was matched…get in there!!!
17:25 Doncaster – Nuno Tristan / Normandy Barriere…plus 1.95…got caught out here with a late change in price but i take it
17:30 Chester – Ellaal / Character Onesie…minus 2
18:20 Salisbury – Jumping Around / Prufrock…minus 2

p/l= minus .15 pt

[jacqueline mclean]

14:40 Chester – Tawny Port / Cullingworth
15:05 Doncaster – Wall of Fire / Fabricate
15:15 Chester – Viscount Barfield / Gabriel the Tiger
15:30 Sandown – Haggie / Shawaahid
15:50 Chester – Playful sound / Cote d’Azur
16:05 Sandown – Aristocratic / Little Miss Kodi
16:40 Sandown – Cloudberry / Postbag
17:00 Chester – Chocala / Gabriel King
17:15 Sandown – Sennockian / Pure Fantasy
17:25 Doncaster – Nuno Tristan / Normandy Barriere
17:30 Chester – Ellaal / Character Onesie
18:20 Salisbury – Jumping Around / Prufrock

[Author]

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