So guys and gals, I thought I’d better share this Place Recovery System with you which operates at 100% success (according to my records) and it is a slight play on some of the strategies we’ve seen before.
So how does it work:-
- Use Betfair Exchange standard place option.
- Matt’s first rated horse is always the preferred selection with the second rated in default.
- We want odds between 1.6 and 3.5.
- Races should have 6 plus horses
- If the first rated is below 1.6 to place we move to the second rated and if neither are an option we swerve.
- Your daily profit should be no more than 1% of your bet bank.
- You calaculate your target profit/stake so e.g. If looking for £25 use the Jonny Bravo formula 25×1.06=£26.5/odds – 1 (so if 1.6, 0.6)=stake. If a race loses you add the lost stake to 25 and apply the formula again.
- STOP AT WIN.
- Stop loss is 5 races but I don’t think you’ll need it.
As promised, herewith details of the system since the date we discussed it. I have set it out so that anyone can check the results, races etc if they are dubious about it. I have used a notional profit target of £5-5.30, which is 1% of a recommended bet bank of £500 to start with and stop loss of 4 races (from 5) to mitigate any losses although, as you can see we rarely require it. The daily profit target can probably be increased (I have actually used a greater one, but I wouldn’t preach this to anyone for fear of them not knowing what they are doing and sustaining losses). If someone misses a plausible selection, they should stop for the day and not chase; it’s just the way it goes sometimes.
I have for my own records and interest, included odds over 3.5, as you can see, but it should be highlighted that they are there to show that if one did stake, they would more than likely lose as these interestingly show that they lose more than win, so I would stress that our odds margin is 1.6-3.5 just before the off.
| First Rated | Second Rated | Time | Course | Odds | Place | Stake | Bank |
| Off | Total | ||||||
| Tisbutadream | 1.05 | Lingfield | 1.97 | 1-8(8) | 5.52 | (5.52)+10.87=5.35 | |
| Moojaned | 1.05 | Southwell | 2.02 | 9-13(14) | 5.03 | 0.32 | |
| Court Frontier | 1.5 | Gowran Park | 1.7 | 1-12(12) | 15.6 | (15.28)+26.52=11.24 | |
| Midnight Cowboy | 1.25 | Doncaster | 1.63 | 2-13(16) | 8.83 | 2.41+14.39=16.8 | |
| Go Kart | 5 | Dundalk | 2.6 | 2-10(10) | 3.35 | 13.45+8.71=22.16 | |
| Singlefarmpayment | 12.35 | Cheltenham | 2.44 | BD-14(14) | 3.68 | 18.48 | |
| Mia's Storm | 12.5 | Doncaster | 3.55 | 1-16(17) | 3.68 | 14.8+13.06=27.86 | |
| Mr Chuckles | 5.45 | Kempton | 1.79 | 3-11(12) | 7.07 | 20.79+12.66=33.45 | |
| Mahlerdramatic | 1.2 | Sedgefield | 3.6 | 2-10(10) | 2.04 | 31.41+5.3=36.71 | |
| Strong Economy | 1.5 | Ayr | 2.3 | 1-6(7). | 4.08 | 32.63+9.38=42.01 | |
| Cusheen Bridge | 1 | Southwell | 2.92 | PU-6(6) | 2.76 | 39.25 | |
| Working Title | 1.3 | Southwell | 4 | 6-6(7) | 2.78 | 36.47 | |
| Holeinthewall Bar | 1.4 | Down Royal | 1.67 | 1-8(8) | 16.67 | 19.8+27.84=47.64 | |
| Lillington | 1.3 | Hereford | 1.66 | 3-8(8) | 8.03 | 39.61+13.33=52.94 | |
| Pahaska | 1.2 | Clonmel | 2.29 | 5-18(19). | 4.21 | 48.73 | |
| Archimedes | 1.45 | Southwell | 1.79 | 6-11(12) | 12.04 | 36.69 | |
| Moroval | 1.5 | Clonmel | 1.7 | 2-17(21) | 32.19 | 4.5+54.74=59.24 | |
| Squire | 5.5 | Cheltenham | 2.3 | 7-13(13). | 4.27 | 54.97 | |
| Boychick | 6.25 | Cheltenham | 2.08 | 1-13(13). | 9.1 | 45.87+18.93=64.80 | |
| Allfredandnobell | 1.15 | Catterick | 1.6 | 5-9(9) | 8.84 | 55.96 | |
| Halcyon Days | 2.15 | Catterick | 2.08 | 1-10(10) | 13.58 | 42.38+28.24=70.62 | |
| He's Our Music | 5 | Dundalk | 1.6 | 3-12(12). | 8.83 | 61.79+14.58=76.37 | |
| Dear Sire | 12.25 | Musselburgh | 1.75 | 6-9(9) | 7.07 | 69.3 | |
| Bridge Builder | 12.5 | Lingfield | 2.4 | 5-9(11) | 9.55 | 59.75 | |
| Vive Ma Fille | 1.05 | Wetherby | 1.66 | 4-8(8) | 22.91 | 36.84 | |
| Grey Gold | 1.15 | Sandown | 2.66 | 1-7(7) | 28.43 | 8.41+75.63=84.04 | |
| Mick Jazz | 1.3 | Punchestown | 2.58 | 1-7(7) | 3.36 | 80.68+8.66=89.34 | |
| Russian Soul | 2.2 | Wolverhampton | 2.28 | 2-9(9). | 2.28 | 85.13+9.51=94.64 | |
| Outlaw Torn | 1.3 | Newcastle | 3.25 | 6-9(9). | 2.41 | 92.23 | |
| Getback In Paris | 1.5 | Market Rasen | 2.8 | 5-8(8). | 4.47 | 87.76 | |
| More Than Luck | 2.1 | Hereford | 2.9 | 4-11(11). | 7.59 | 80.17 | |
| Pampanini | 2.2 | Market Rasen | 1.84 | 3-6(6) | 24.27 | 55.9 | |
| Energia Fox | 2.3 | Newcastle | 1.65 | 1-8(9) | 71.32 | (15.42)+115.36=99.94 | |
| Bettatogether | 1.4 | Ludlow | 3.75 (odds shot up as after I placed bet at 3.5) | F-15(16). | 1.97 | 97.97 | |
| Zalvados | 1.5 | Carlisle | 2.18 | 2-10(10). | 6.26 | 91.71+13.53=105.24 | |
| Kid Kalanisi | 1.15 | Huntingdon | 2.64 | 2-7(7). | 3.23 | 102.01+8.53=110.54 | |
| Nouvelle Ere | 5.5 | Chelmsford | 3.1 | 8-13(14). | 2.52 | 108.02 | |
| Gentlemen | 7.3 | Chelmsford | 3.55 | 4-9(10) | 3.17 | 104.85 | |
| Krazy Paving | 8 | Chelmsford | 1.83 | 2-14(14) | 14.11 | 90.74+25.1=115.84 | |
| Yul Finegold | 1.3 | Southwell | 3 | 6-7(7). | 2.65 | 113.19 | |
| Cashanova | 1.4 | Kempton | 2.12 | 4-12(12). | 7.11 | 106.08 | |
| Lough Derg Farmer | 1.5 | Bangor | 1.66 | 2-5(5). | 20.91 | 85.17+35.97=121.14 | |
| Goodnite Irina | 4.55 | Dundalk | 1.66 | 5-14(15). | 8.03 | 113.11 | |
| Political Policy | 5.3 | Dundalk | 2.51 | 3-9(10) | 5.53 | 107.58+18.86=126.44 | |
| Samdibien | 1.1 | Uttoxeter | 2.55 | PU-9(10) | 3.4 | 123.04 | |
| Dead Right | 1.15 | Newbury | NB | 8-10(10) | I missed the race | ||
| First Experience | 1.25 | Lingfield | 2.06 | 2-8(9). | 8.4 | 114.64+17.1=131.74 |